Prediction: Boston River vs Central Espanol
Expected goals: 2.68 (Boston River 1.48 · Central Espanol 1.21). The model gives 42% home, 29% draw, 29% away. Over 2 goals (60%) and both teams to score (54%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Over its last 10 matches, Boston River sits at 3-1-6 (W-D-L), while Central Espanol arrives on a 5-2-3 run. In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Boston River won 3 and Central Espanol 1.
| Boston River | Draw | Central Espanol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Market | 42% | 29% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Central Espanol (rating 1465 vs 1525).
- H2H favours Boston River: 3-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Boston River | Central Espanol | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.9 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.9 | 1.3 / 2.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.3 | 5.3 / 0.8 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Boston River 3–0–1 Central Espanol
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Uruguay Apertura | Boston River | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Central Espanol |
| 02/04/16 Uruguay Segunda | Boston River | 1-0 | Central Espanol |
| 02/05/15 Uruguay Segunda | Central Espanol | 0-2 | Boston River |
| 02/12/14 Uruguay Segunda | Boston River | 1-2 | Central Espanol |
Standings · Uruguay Torneo Intermedio · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Central Espanol | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Racing Club de Montevideo | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Liverpool Montevideo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 6 | Boston River | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 7 | Cerro | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Boston River | Central Espanol |
|---|---|---|
| Defensor Sporting | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Cerro | 4-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Boston River
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 01/06 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 10 | L |
| 27/05 | Sao Paulo Copa Sudamericana |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 21/05 | O'Higgins Copa Sudamericana |
2-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
2-1 | 4-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 11/05 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Apertura |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 08/05 | Millonarios Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Central Espanol Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 29/04 | O'Higgins Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
Central Espanol
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 8 | D |
| 02/06 | Penarol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 24/05 | Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 03/05 | Boston River Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | Cerro Uruguay Apertura |
2-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 9 | W |
| 18/04 | Albion FC Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 1-6 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 12/04 | Danubio Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 04/04 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Boston River vs Central Espanol?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Boston River win (42%). Probabilities: Boston River 42%, draw 29%, Central Espanol 29%.
How many goals are expected in Boston River vs Central Espanol?
The model expects 2.68 goals (Boston River 1.48 · Central Espanol 1.21), with a 60% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Boston River vs Central Espanol?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.