Football · Uruguay Torneo Intermedio · 18/07, 21:00
Prediction: Penarol vs Boston River
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.55Total
Penarol1.66
Boston River0.89
1X2
Penarol
Draw
Boston River
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Penarol
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Boston River
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Penarol
3–2–1
Boston River
(6 last)
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Penarol (rating 1516 vs 1456).
- H2H favours Penarol: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Penarol | Boston River | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.9 | 1.3 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.2 | 1.8 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.4 | 4.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Penarol 3–2–1 Boston River
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/03/26 Uruguay Apertura | Boston River | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Penarol |
| 24/01/26 Uruguay Copa de la Liga | Penarol | 2-2 HT 2-2 | Boston River |
| 16/08/25 Uruguay Clausura | Boston River | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Penarol |
| 15/02/25 Uruguay Apertura | Penarol | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Boston River |
| 20/10/24 Uruguay Clausura | Penarol | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Boston River |
| 20/04/24 Uruguay Apertura | Boston River | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Penarol |
Standings · Uruguay Torneo Intermedio · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Central Espanol | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Racing Club de Montevideo | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Liverpool Montevideo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 6 | Boston River | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 7 | Cerro | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Penarol | Boston River |
|---|---|---|
| Cerro | 1-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Central Espanol | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Defensor Sporting | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Liverpool Montevideo | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Cerro Largo | 3-2 W | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Penarol (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Penarol
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 07/06 | Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 02/06 | Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 28/05 | Independiente Santa Fe Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 22/05 | Corinthians Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 16/05 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 12/05 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 08/05 | Platense Copa Libertadores |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 05/05 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 9 | D |
Boston River
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 07/06 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 01/06 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 10 | L |
| 27/05 | Sao Paulo Copa Sudamericana |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 21/05 | O'Higgins Copa Sudamericana |
2-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
2-1 | 4-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 11/05 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Apertura |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 08/05 | Millonarios Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Central Espanol Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Penarol vs Boston River?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Penarol win (54%). Probabilities: Penarol 54%, draw 27%, Boston River 19%.
How many goals are expected in Penarol vs Boston River?
The model expects 2.55 goals (Penarol 1.66 · Boston River 0.89), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Penarol vs Boston River?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.