Football · Uruguay Torneo Intermedio · 18/07, 17:30
Prediction: Club Atletico Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.47Total
Club Atletico Progreso0.88
Deportivo Maldonado1.59
1X2
Club Atletico Progreso
Draw
Deportivo Maldonado
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Club Atletico Progreso
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Deportivo Maldonado
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Club Atletico Progreso
2–2–2
Deportivo Maldonado
(6 last)
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Maldonado (rating 1422 vs 1584).
- Cards-heavy: 12 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Club Atletico Progreso | Deportivo Maldonado | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.5 | 2.1 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.9 | 2.5 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.3 / 0.2 | 5.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Atletico Progreso 2–2–2 Deportivo Maldonado
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 Uruguay Apertura | Deportivo Maldonado | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Club Atletico Progreso |
| 06/10/24 Uruguay Clausura | Deportivo Maldonado | 2-2 HT 2-0 | Club Atletico Progreso |
| 21/07/24 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Club Atletico Progreso | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Maldonado |
| 31/03/24 Uruguay Apertura | Club Atletico Progreso | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Deportivo Maldonado |
| 21/10/21 Uruguay Clausura | Club Atletico Progreso | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Deportivo Maldonado |
| 24/06/21 Uruguay Apertura | Deportivo Maldonado | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Club Atletico Progreso |
Standings · Uruguay Torneo Intermedio · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Maldonado | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 11 |
| 2 | Nacional De Football | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | Montevideo Wanderers | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Torque | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| 5 | Albion FC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 6 | Juventud De Las Piedras | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 4 |
| 7 | Danubio | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 8 | Club Atletico Progreso | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 3 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Club Atletico Progreso | Deportivo Maldonado |
|---|---|---|
| Montevideo Wanderers | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Albion FC | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Danubio | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Torque | 1-2 L | 4-2 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 3 L | 2 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Deportivo Maldonado (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Club Atletico Progreso
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 07/06 | Albion FC Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 30/05 | Danubio Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Torque Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 10 | L |
| 16/05 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | Torque Uruguay Apertura |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 28/04 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 11 | L |
| 18/04 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 12/04 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
Deportivo Maldonado
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Albion FC Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 06/06 | Torque Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
2-1 | 4-2 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 24/05 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 18/05 | Danubio Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 11/05 | Boston River Uruguay Apertura |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Cerro Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | Albion FC Uruguay Apertura |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 19/04 | Danubio Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 12/04 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Apertura |
2-2 | 4-2 | 3 | 9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Club Atletico Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Deportivo Maldonado win (53%). Probabilities: Club Atletico Progreso 20%, draw 28%, Deportivo Maldonado 53%.
How many goals are expected in Club Atletico Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?
The model expects 2.47 goals (Club Atletico Progreso 0.88 · Deportivo Maldonado 1.59), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Club Atletico Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.