Prediction: Racing Club de Montevideo vs Penarol
Expected goals: 2 (Racing Club de Montevideo 0.8 · Penarol 1.2). The model gives 25% home, 30% draw, 45% away. Under 2 goals (51%) and not both to score (52%). Most likely score: 0-1.
On recent form, Racing Club de Montevideo is 4-5-1 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Penarol 4-3-3 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 2 wins for Racing Club de Montevideo and 2 for Penarol, with 2 draws.
| Racing Club de Montevideo | Draw | Penarol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 33% | 44% |
| Market | 26% | 28% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Racing Club de Montevideo | Penarol | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 1.1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.6 / 6.1 | 2.4 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.9 / 0.6 | 4.6 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Racing Club de Montevideo 2–2–2 Penarol
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/26 Uruguay Apertura | Penarol | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Racing Club de Montevideo |
| 20/01/26 Uruguay Copa de la Liga | Penarol | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Racing Club de Montevideo |
| 31/08/25 Uruguay Clausura | Racing Club de Montevideo | 1-4 HT 1-2 | Penarol |
| 09/03/25 Uruguay Apertura | Penarol | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Racing Club de Montevideo |
| 01/10/24 Uruguay Clausura | Penarol | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Racing Club de Montevideo |
| 16/06/24 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Penarol | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Racing Club de Montevideo |
Standings · Uruguay Torneo Intermedio · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Central Espanol | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Racing Club de Montevideo | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Liverpool Montevideo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 6 | Boston River | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 7 | Cerro | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Racing Club de Montevideo | Penarol |
|---|---|---|
| Central Espanol | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Defensor Sporting | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| Liverpool Montevideo | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Cerro Largo | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 0 L | 3 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Penarol (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Racing Club de Montevideo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06 | Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 8 | D |
| 30/05 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 23/05 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 9 | D |
| 17/05 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 09/05 | Central Espanol Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | Torque Uruguay Apertura |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 26/04 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 18/04 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 12/04 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 04/04 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Apertura |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
Penarol
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06 | Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 02/06 | Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 28/05 | Independiente Santa Fe Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 22/05 | Corinthians Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 16/05 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 12/05 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 08/05 | Platense Copa Libertadores |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 05/05 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 9 | D |
| 01/05 | Corinthians Copa Libertadores |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Racing Club de Montevideo vs Penarol?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Penarol win (45%). Probabilities: Racing Club de Montevideo 25%, draw 30%, Penarol 45%.
How many goals are expected in Racing Club de Montevideo vs Penarol?
The model expects 2 goals (Racing Club de Montevideo 0.8 · Penarol 1.2), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Racing Club de Montevideo vs Penarol?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.