Football · Poland III Liga · 17/10, 12:00

Prediction: Wieczysta Krakow II vs Moravia Morawica

Team pages: Wieczysta Krakow II · Moravia Morawica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Wieczysta Krakow II1.71

Moravia Morawica1.04

1X2

53% 24% 23%

Wieczysta Krakow II Draw Moravia Morawica

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Wieczysta Krakow II 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDWLLLDLWD

Moravia Morawica 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLLDDD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wieczysta Krakow II 1492 · Moravia Morawica 1435

	Wieczysta Krakow II	Draw	Moravia Morawica
Our model	52%	26%	22%
Market	54%	22%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wieczysta Krakow II (rating 1492 vs 1435).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wieczysta Krakow II	Moravia Morawica
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.9	1.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 6.8	1.7 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0	5.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.67

X4.10

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.67▲	Bet365 1.67
X	4.00 → 4.10▲	Bet365 4.10
2	3.90 → 3.75▼	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:31 +11’	1.65	4.00	3.90
18:47 +7’	1.67▲	4.10▲	3.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	12	9	3	0	20	6	30
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	12	6	5	1	21	9	23
3	Naprzod Jedrzejow	12	7	2	3	28	21	23
4	Wisloka Debica	12	7	2	3	16	13	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	12	6	2	4	19	12	20
6	Czarni Polaniec	12	6	2	4	18	17	20
7	JKS Jaroslaw	12	5	2	5	28	22	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	12	4	5	3	21	20	17
9	Wisla Krakow II	12	4	4	4	15	17	16
10	Korona Kielce II	12	4	2	6	27	27	14
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	4	2	6	15	19	14
12	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	12	4	2	6	17	26	14
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	12	2	7	3	12	13	13
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	12	3	3	6	11	15	12
15	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	12	3	3	6	10	17	12
16	Star Starachowice	12	2	5	5	14	19	11
17	Moravia Morawica	12	2	3	7	13	22	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	12	2	2	8	12	22	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wieczysta Krakow II	Moravia Morawica
Chelmianka Chelm	0-1 L	0-3 L
Wisloka Debica	3-0 W	0-0 D
Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	1-1 D	2-2 D
JKS Jaroslaw	2-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Wieczysta Krakow II (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wieczysta Krakow II

WDWLLLDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	12	7	D
03/10	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	3	10	W
26/09	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	10	2	L
19/09	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
11/09	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	4	9	L
05/09	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
29/08	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
22/08	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
19/08	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	2-1	2-1	–	–	W

Moravia Morawica

LWLLLLLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
03/10	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
27/09	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	0-0	2-2	8	3	D
19/09	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
13/09	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	1	8	L
05/09	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
30/08	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	2	6	L
22/08	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
19/08	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	2-1	4-2	–	–	W
15/08	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-3	0-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wieczysta Krakow II vs Moravia Morawica?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wieczysta Krakow II win (53%). Probabilities: Wieczysta Krakow II 53%, draw 24%, Moravia Morawica 23%.

How many goals are expected in Wieczysta Krakow II vs Moravia Morawica?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Wieczysta Krakow II 1.71 · Moravia Morawica 1.04), with a 58% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Wieczysta Krakow II vs Moravia Morawica?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.