Football · Poland III Liga · 24/10, 14:00

Prediction: Moravia Morawica vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Team pages: Moravia Morawica · Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Moravia Morawica1.56

Siarka Tarnobrzeg1.54

1X2

38% 26% 36%

Moravia Morawica Draw Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Moravia Morawica 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLDDDL

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWDWLLLW

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Siarka Tarnobrzeg (rating 1441 vs 1492).
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Moravia Morawica	Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.8	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4	1.6 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.3	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.76

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:39

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.17 → 3.16▼	Pinn 3.16
X	3.39 → 3.44▲	Pinn 3.44
2	1.94 → 1.93▼	Pinn 1.93

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
03:14 +16’	3.17	3.39	1.94
04:07 +32’	3.16▼	3.44▲	1.93▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	13	9	4	0	20	6	31
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	13	7	5	1	24	10	26
3	Wisloka Debica	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	13	7	2	4	28	25	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	14	6	3	5	21	15	21
6	Czarni Polaniec	13	6	3	4	18	17	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	5	5	3	25	22	20
8	JKS Jaroslaw	13	5	2	6	29	25	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	5	2	6	19	19	17
10	Star Starachowice	14	4	5	5	20	21	17
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	13	3	7	3	13	13	16
12	Wisla Krakow II	13	4	4	5	15	18	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	13	4	3	6	12	15	15
14	Korona Kielce II	13	4	2	7	28	31	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	13	4	2	7	19	30	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	2	3	8	13	23	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	13	2	2	9	12	26	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Moravia Morawica	Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Wieczysta Krakow II	0-1 L	2-0 W
Wisloka Debica	0-0 D	1-0 W
Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	2-2 D	0-2 L
JKS Jaroslaw	2-2 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Moravia Morawica

WLLLLLDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
10/10	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
03/10	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
27/09	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	0-0	2-2	8	3	D
19/09	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
13/09	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	1	8	L
05/09	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
30/08	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	2	6	L
22/08	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
19/08	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	2-1	4-2	–	–	W

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

LLWWDWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
09/10	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	0-3	1-4	5	2	L
03/10	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
26/09	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	5	7	L
19/09	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
29/08	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
23/08	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
19/08	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	1-0	1-3	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Moravia Morawica vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Moravia Morawica win (38%). Probabilities: Moravia Morawica 38%, draw 26%, Siarka Tarnobrzeg 36%.

How many goals are expected in Moravia Morawica vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Moravia Morawica 1.56 · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1.54), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Moravia Morawica vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.