Football · Poland III Liga · 08/11, 13:00

Prediction: AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj vs JKS Jaroslaw

Team pages: AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj · JKS Jaroslaw

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.12Total

AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj1.7

JKS Jaroslaw2.43

1X2

26% 21% 53%

AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Draw JKS Jaroslaw

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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JKS Jaroslaw 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWDLLLLD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj 1440 · JKS Jaroslaw 1484

	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	Draw	JKS Jaroslaw
Our model	26%	21%	53%
Market	26%	21%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 4.12 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JKS Jaroslaw (rating 1440 vs 1484).
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	JKS Jaroslaw
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.6	2.2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	1 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.3	2.8 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.50

X4.20

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.88

Under 3.51.93

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:09 +13’	3.50	4.20	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	15	11	4	0	25	6	37
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	15	8	5	2	27	13	29
3	Wisloka Debica	15	9	2	4	23	17	29
4	Hetman Zamosc	15	7	5	3	28	22	26
5	Czarni Polaniec	15	7	4	4	22	20	25
6	Wislanie Jaskowice	15	7	3	5	23	16	24
7	Naprzod Jedrzejow	15	7	3	5	30	30	24
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	15	7	2	6	25	21	23
9	Wisla Krakow II	15	6	4	5	20	20	22
10	Star Starachowice	15	5	5	5	24	24	20
11	JKS Jaroslaw	15	5	3	7	31	28	18
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	15	3	7	5	14	17	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	15	4	4	7	15	19	16
14	Korona Kielce II	15	4	2	9	29	35	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	15	4	2	9	20	35	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	15	3	4	8	11	24	13
17	Moravia Morawica	15	3	3	9	19	26	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	15	3	2	10	17	30	11

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	JKS Jaroslaw
Czarni Polaniec	1-2 L	2-2 D
Hetman Zamosc	2-4 L	0-1 L
KSZO Ostrowiec	0-5 L	1-3 L
Wisla Krakow II	3-0 W	1-2 L
Naprzod Jedrzejow	1-4 L	1-3 L
Moravia Morawica	2-1 W	2-2 D
Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	1-2 L	5-2 W
Wislanie Jaskowice	2-1 W	1-3 L
Korona Kielce II	1-4 L	6-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 6 L	2 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: JKS Jaroslaw (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-0	0-3	5	4	L
24/10	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
18/10	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	1-1	2-4	4	4	L
10/10	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-3	0-5	4	3	L
04/10	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
26/09	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	8	5	L
19/09	Moravia Morawica Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
12/09	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	10	9	L
06/09	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	4	8	W
29/08	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	1-2	1-4	–	–	L

JKS Jaroslaw

WWLWDLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
25/10	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
17/10	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	1-0	1-3	–	–	L
10/10	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	5	5	L
03/10	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	1-3	1-3	–	–	L
27/09	Moravia Morawica Poland III Liga	0-0	2-2	9	3	D
19/09	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	2-2	5-2	11	5	W
12/09	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	0-3	1-3	5	5	L
05/09	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	3-1	6-2	6	7	W
29/08	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj vs JKS Jaroslaw?

According to our model, the most likely result is an JKS Jaroslaw win (53%). Probabilities: AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj 26%, draw 21%, JKS Jaroslaw 53%.

How many goals are expected in AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj vs JKS Jaroslaw?

The model expects 4.12 goals (AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj 1.7 · JKS Jaroslaw 2.43), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj vs JKS Jaroslaw?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.