Football · Poland III Liga · 24/10, 13:00

Prediction: Lipno Steszew vs Gedania Gdansk

Team pages: Lipno Steszew · Gedania Gdansk

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.56Total

Lipno Steszew1.85

Gedania Gdansk1.71

1X2

41% 24% 35%

Lipno Steszew Draw Gedania Gdansk

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Lipno Steszew 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWDLWW

Gedania Gdansk 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLLLDWLDWD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lipno Steszew 1479 · Gedania Gdansk 1505

	Lipno Steszew	Draw	Gedania Gdansk
Our model	41%	24%	35%
Market	41%	24%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.56 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lipno Steszew	Gedania Gdansk
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.9	2 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.6	3.3 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.4	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.70

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:02 +14’	2.20	3.70	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · Poland III Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	13	9	4	0	20	6	31
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	13	7	5	1	24	10	26
3	Wisloka Debica	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	13	7	2	4	28	25	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	13	6	3	4	20	13	21
6	Czarni Polaniec	13	6	3	4	18	17	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	5	5	3	25	22	20
8	JKS Jaroslaw	13	5	2	6	29	25	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	5	2	6	19	19	17
10	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	13	3	7	3	13	13	16
11	Wisla Krakow II	13	4	4	5	15	18	16
12	Wieczysta Krakow II	13	4	3	6	12	15	15
13	Star Starachowice	13	3	5	5	18	20	14
14	Korona Kielce II	13	4	2	7	28	31	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	13	4	2	7	19	30	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	2	3	8	13	23	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	13	2	2	9	12	26	8

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lipno Steszew	Gedania Gdansk
Blekitni Stargard	4-3 W	2-2 D
Chemik Bydgoszcz	0-1 L	3-2 W
Victoria Wrzesnia	1-1 D	0-0 D
Baltyk Koszalin	2-1 W	1-3 L
KSS Kotwica Kornik	1-4 L	6-1 W
Flota Swinoujscie	1-3 L	1-1 D
KTS-K Luzino	1-2 L	0-4 L
Polonia Sroda Wlkp	2-3 L	3-4 L
Lech Poznan II	0-1 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 6 L	2 W 3 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lipno Steszew

LLLLLWDLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
10/10	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	2-2	4-3	2	6	W
03/10	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
26/09	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
19/09	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
12/09	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	7	1	L
05/09	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	6	5	L
28/08	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
22/08	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-1	2-3	–	–	L
19/08	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L

Gedania Gdansk

DLLLDWLDWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	2-2	2-2	3	6	D
10/10	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	5	2	W
03/10	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
26/09	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	3	1	L
19/09	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	2-1	6-1	–	–	W
12/09	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	7	4	L
28/08	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-0	3-4	6	7	L
23/08	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
19/08	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	2-0	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lipno Steszew vs Gedania Gdansk?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lipno Steszew win (41%). Probabilities: Lipno Steszew 41%, draw 24%, Gedania Gdansk 35%.

How many goals are expected in Lipno Steszew vs Gedania Gdansk?

The model expects 3.56 goals (Lipno Steszew 1.85 · Gedania Gdansk 1.71), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Lipno Steszew vs Gedania Gdansk?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.