Football · Poland III Liga · 07/11, 12:00

Prediction: Lipno Steszew vs Unia Swarzedz

Team pages: Lipno Steszew · Unia Swarzedz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Lipno Steszew1.36

Unia Swarzedz1.73

1X2

30% 25% 46%

Lipno Steszew Draw Unia Swarzedz

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Lipno Steszew 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWDLWWLW

Unia Swarzedz 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDLLWWDDWD

Head-to-head

Lipno Steszew 2–1 Unia Swarzedz (3 last)

Lipno Steszew0-3Unia Swarzedz
Lipno Steszew4-3Unia Swarzedz
Unia Swarzedz0-2Lipno Steszew

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lipno Steszew 1493 · Unia Swarzedz 1511

	Lipno Steszew	Draw	Unia Swarzedz
Our model	29%	26%	45%
Market	30%	24%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Lipno Steszew: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lipno Steszew	Unia Swarzedz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	1.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.7	2.4 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.75

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:00 +18’	3.00	3.75	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lipno Steszew 2–0–1 Unia Swarzedz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/07/26 Europe Friendlies	Lipno Steszew	0-3 HT 0-1	Unia Swarzedz
30/05/26 Poland III Liga	Lipno Steszew	4-3 HT 1-1	Unia Swarzedz
15/11/25 Poland III Liga	Unia Swarzedz	0-2 HT 0-2	Lipno Steszew

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	15	11	4	0	25	6	37
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	15	8	5	2	27	13	29
3	Wisloka Debica	15	9	2	4	23	17	29
4	Hetman Zamosc	15	7	5	3	28	22	26
5	Naprzod Jedrzejow	15	7	4	4	31	28	25
6	Czarni Polaniec	15	7	4	4	22	20	25
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	15	7	3	5	23	16	24
8	Wisla Krakow II	15	6	4	5	20	20	22
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	15	6	3	6	23	22	21
10	Star Starachowice	15	5	5	5	24	24	20
11	JKS Jaroslaw	15	5	3	7	31	28	18
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	15	3	7	5	14	17	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	15	4	4	7	15	19	16
14	Korona Kielce II	15	4	2	9	29	35	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	15	4	2	9	20	35	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	15	3	4	8	11	24	13
17	Moravia Morawica	15	3	3	9	19	26	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	15	3	2	10	17	30	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lipno Steszew	Unia Swarzedz
Blekitni Stargard	4-3 W	0-0 D
Chemik Bydgoszcz	0-1 L	3-1 W
Victoria Wrzesnia	1-1 D	0-0 D
Baltyk Koszalin	2-1 W	1-1 D
KSS Kotwica Kornik	1-4 L	7-0 W
Flota Swinoujscie	1-3 L	2-0 W
KTS-K Luzino	1-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lipno Steszew

LLLWDLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
24/10	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	5	7	L
17/10	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
10/10	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	2-2	4-3	2	6	W
03/10	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
26/09	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
19/09	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
12/09	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	7	1	L
05/09	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	6	5	L
28/08	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	7	5	L

Unia Swarzedz

LDLLWWDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
24/10	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	3	3	W
17/10	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
10/10	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	5	8	D
03/10	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	2-0	7-0	6	3	W
26/09	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
19/09	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	1-0	1-3	3	5	L
11/09	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-1	3-4	6	5	L
04/09	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	9	3	D
28/08	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	7	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lipno Steszew vs Unia Swarzedz?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Unia Swarzedz win (46%). Probabilities: Lipno Steszew 30%, draw 25%, Unia Swarzedz 46%.

How many goals are expected in Lipno Steszew vs Unia Swarzedz?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Lipno Steszew 1.36 · Unia Swarzedz 1.73), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Lipno Steszew vs Unia Swarzedz?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.