Football · Poland III Liga · 07/11, 12:00

Prediction: Gedania Gdansk vs Grom Nowy Staw

Team pages: Gedania Gdansk · Grom Nowy Staw

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.46Total

Gedania Gdansk1.9

Grom Nowy Staw1.56

1X2

45% 24% 31%

Gedania Gdansk Draw Grom Nowy Staw

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Gedania Gdansk 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LLDWLDWDWD

Grom Nowy Staw 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WDLWWLLWLL

Head-to-head

Gedania Gdansk 0–1 Grom Nowy Staw (1 last)

Gedania Gdansk1-2Grom Nowy Staw

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gedania Gdansk 1495 · Grom Nowy Staw 1494

	Gedania Gdansk	Draw	Grom Nowy Staw
Our model	45%	24%	31%
Market	45%	24%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gedania Gdansk	Grom Nowy Staw
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.8	2.2 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	1.1 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 4.8	1.3 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	5.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.75

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:13 +5’	2.00	3.75	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gedania Gdansk 0–0–1 Grom Nowy Staw

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Poland IV Liga	Gedania Gdansk	1-2 HT 0-0	Grom Nowy Staw

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	15	11	4	0	25	6	37
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	15	8	5	2	27	13	29
3	Wisloka Debica	15	9	2	4	23	17	29
4	Hetman Zamosc	15	7	5	3	28	22	26
5	Naprzod Jedrzejow	15	7	4	4	31	28	25
6	Czarni Polaniec	15	7	4	4	22	20	25
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	15	7	3	5	23	16	24
8	Wisla Krakow II	15	6	4	5	20	20	22
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	15	6	3	6	23	22	21
10	Star Starachowice	15	5	5	5	24	24	20
11	JKS Jaroslaw	15	5	3	7	31	28	18
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	15	3	7	5	14	17	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	15	4	4	7	15	19	16
14	Korona Kielce II	15	4	2	9	29	35	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	15	4	2	9	20	35	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	15	3	4	8	11	24	13
17	Moravia Morawica	15	3	3	9	19	26	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	15	3	2	10	17	30	11

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gedania Gdansk	Grom Nowy Staw
Lipno Steszew	2-1 W	1-2 L
Blekitni Stargard	2-2 D	1-3 L
Chemik Bydgoszcz	3-2 W	2-0 W
Victoria Wrzesnia	0-0 D	0-1 L
Baltyk Koszalin	1-3 L	1-3 L
KSS Kotwica Kornik	6-1 W	3-1 W
Flota Swinoujscie	1-1 D	5-0 W
KTS-K Luzino	0-4 L	1-5 L
Polonia Sroda Wlkp	3-4 L	4-4 D
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Gedania Gdansk (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gedania Gdansk

LLDWLDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
24/10	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	4	7	W
17/10	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	2-2	2-2	3	6	D
10/10	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	5	2	W
03/10	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
26/09	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	3	1	L
19/09	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	2-1	6-1	–	–	W
12/09	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	7	4	L
28/08	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-0	3-4	6	7	L

Grom Nowy Staw

WDLWWLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	7	7	L
24/10	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	1-2	1-3	3	5	L
17/10	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
10/10	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
03/10	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-2	1-3	3	10	L
26/09	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	2-1	3-1	5	3	W
19/09	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	5-0	5-0	2	5	W
11/09	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-2	1-5	4	0	L
05/09	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	2-2	4-4	5	6	D
29/08	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	0-2	4-2	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gedania Gdansk vs Grom Nowy Staw?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gedania Gdansk win (45%). Probabilities: Gedania Gdansk 45%, draw 24%, Grom Nowy Staw 31%.

How many goals are expected in Gedania Gdansk vs Grom Nowy Staw?

The model expects 3.46 goals (Gedania Gdansk 1.9 · Grom Nowy Staw 1.56), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Gedania Gdansk vs Grom Nowy Staw?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.