Football · Poland III Liga · 19/08, 19:00

Prediction: Polonia Sroda Wlkp vs Blekitni Stargard

Team pages: Polonia Sroda Wlkp · Blekitni Stargard

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

Polonia Sroda Wlkp1.68

Blekitni Stargard0.96

1X2

54% 25% 21%

Polonia Sroda Wlkp Draw Blekitni Stargard

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Polonia Sroda Wlkp 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWLWWW

Blekitni Stargard 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWDDWWWDLW

Head-to-head

Polonia Sroda Wlkp 3–1–2 Blekitni Stargard (6 last)

Blekitni Stargard0-1Polonia Sroda Wlkp
Polonia Sroda Wlkp4-2Blekitni Stargard
Polonia Sroda Wlkp0-0Blekitni Stargard
Blekitni Stargard3-0Polonia Sroda Wlkp
Polonia Sroda Wlkp0-3Blekitni Stargard
Blekitni Stargard1-3Polonia Sroda Wlkp

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Polonia Sroda Wlkp 1579 · Blekitni Stargard 1546

	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	Draw	Blekitni Stargard
Our model	53%	26%	20%
Market	55%	23%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Polonia Sroda Wlkp: 3-1-2.
High corners: 14.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	Blekitni Stargard
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1	1.8 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.7	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 7.1	3.6 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.90

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	4.00 → 3.90▼	Bet365 3.90
2	3.90 → 4.10▲	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:38 +9’	1.65	4.00	3.90
15:23 +8’	1.65	3.90▼	4.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Polonia Sroda Wlkp 3–1–2 Blekitni Stargard

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/11/25 Poland III Liga	Blekitni Stargard	0-1 HT 0-0	Polonia Sroda Wlkp
01/08/25 Poland III Liga	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	4-2 HT 1-0	Blekitni Stargard
28/03/25 Poland III Liga	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	0-0 HT 0-0	Blekitni Stargard
31/08/24 Poland III Liga	Blekitni Stargard	3-0 HT 2-0	Polonia Sroda Wlkp
15/05/24 Poland III Liga	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	0-3 HT 0-2	Blekitni Stargard
21/10/23 Poland III Liga	Blekitni Stargard	1-3 HT 0-1	Polonia Sroda Wlkp

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	3	3	0	0	6	0	9
2	Wislanie Jaskowice	3	3	0	0	6	1	9
3	Wisloka Debica	3	2	1	0	6	3	7
4	KSZO Ostrowiec	3	2	1	0	4	2	7
5	Wisla Krakow II	3	2	0	1	7	5	6
6	Czarni Polaniec	3	2	0	1	4	3	6
7	Naprzod Jedrzejow	3	2	0	1	7	7	6
8	Hetman Zamosc	3	1	2	0	5	2	5
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	3	1	1	1	5	3	4
10	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	3	1	1	1	3	2	4
11	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	3	1	1	1	5	6	4
12	Wieczysta Krakow II	3	1	0	2	4	7	3
13	Moravia Morawica	3	1	0	2	2	5	3
14	JKS Jaroslaw	3	0	1	2	4	7	1
15	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	3	0	1	2	3	6	1
16	Star Starachowice	3	0	1	2	2	7	1
17	Korona Kielce II	3	0	0	3	7	10	0
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	3	0	0	3	1	5	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	Blekitni Stargard
Pogon Nowe Skalmierzyce	2-1 W	0-0 D
Kluczevia Stargard	2-1 W	1-2 L
Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal	4-0 W	3-0 W
Notec Czarnkow	0-2 L	1-1 D
Tluchowia Tluchowo	3-1 W	4-1 W
Wda Swiecie	2-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Polonia Sroda Wlkp

LWLWWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	4-1	4-1	6	1	W
07/08	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
01/08	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	13	4	W
08/07	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-1	1	0	L
30/05	Pogon Nowe Skalmierzyce Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	2	11	W
23/05	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	8	10	W
17/05	Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal Poland III Liga	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
13/05	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
08/05	Tluchowia Tluchowo Poland III Liga	0-1	3-1	15	1	W
01/05	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	2-2	2-3	6	4	L

Blekitni Stargard

DWDDWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	4-2	4-2	10	5	W
08/08	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
01/08	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	7	1	D
17/07	OKS Swit Skolwin Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
30/05	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	12	4	W
22/05	Tluchowia Tluchowo Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	4	6	W
17/05	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	10	4	D
13/05	Pogon Nowe Skalmierzyce Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	9	7	D
08/05	Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal Poland III Liga	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
01/05	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	2	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Polonia Sroda Wlkp vs Blekitni Stargard?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Polonia Sroda Wlkp win (54%). Probabilities: Polonia Sroda Wlkp 54%, draw 25%, Blekitni Stargard 21%.

How many goals are expected in Polonia Sroda Wlkp vs Blekitni Stargard?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Polonia Sroda Wlkp 1.68 · Blekitni Stargard 0.96), with a 58% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Polonia Sroda Wlkp vs Blekitni Stargard?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.