Football · Poland III Liga · 28/08, 17:00

Prediction: Wda Swiecie vs Notec Czarnkow

Team pages: Wda Swiecie · Notec Czarnkow

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Wda Swiecie1.64

Notec Czarnkow1.58

1X2

39% 25% 36%

Wda Swiecie Draw Notec Czarnkow

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Wda Swiecie 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLLDWDWW

Notec Czarnkow 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLLWWW

Head-to-head

Wda Swiecie 1–3 Notec Czarnkow (4 last)

Wda Swiecie1-3Notec Czarnkow
Notec Czarnkow3-0Wda Swiecie
Notec Czarnkow3-0Wda Swiecie
Wda Swiecie6-0Notec Czarnkow

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wda Swiecie 1502 · Notec Czarnkow 1555

	Wda Swiecie	Draw	Notec Czarnkow
Our model	38%	25%	36%
Market	39%	24%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Notec Czarnkow (rating 1502 vs 1555).
H2H favours Notec Czarnkow: 3-0-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wda Swiecie	Notec Czarnkow
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.4	1.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.4	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.9	2 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.70

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
21:28 +16’	2.30	3.70	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wda Swiecie 1–0–3 Notec Czarnkow

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Poland III Liga	Wda Swiecie	1-3 HT 1-2	Notec Czarnkow
15/11/25 Poland III Liga	Notec Czarnkow	3-0 HT 2-0	Wda Swiecie
11/05/25 Poland III Liga	Notec Czarnkow	3-0 HT 2-0	Wda Swiecie
13/10/24 Poland III Liga	Wda Swiecie	6-0 HT 4-0	Notec Czarnkow

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	5	5	0	0	10	1	15
2	Wislanie Jaskowice	5	4	1	0	9	3	13
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	5	3	2	0	7	4	11
4	Wisla Krakow II	5	3	1	1	9	6	10
5	Czarni Polaniec	5	3	0	2	8	8	9
6	JKS Jaroslaw	5	2	1	2	9	8	7
7	Wieczysta Krakow II	5	2	1	2	8	8	7
8	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	5	2	1	2	5	5	7
9	Wisloka Debica	5	2	1	2	7	8	7
10	Hetman Zamosc	5	1	3	1	7	5	6
11	Moravia Morawica	5	2	0	3	6	8	6
12	Naprzod Jedrzejow	5	2	0	3	9	13	6
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	5	1	2	2	6	7	5
14	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	5	1	2	2	7	9	5
15	Star Starachowice	5	1	2	2	5	8	5
16	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	5	1	1	3	6	8	4
17	Korona Kielce II	5	0	1	4	12	16	1
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	5	0	1	4	2	7	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wda Swiecie	Notec Czarnkow
Unia Swarzedz	1-0 W	3-0 W
Grom Nowy Staw	4-2 W	0-2 L
Gedania Gdansk	1-1 D	3-5 L
Blekitni Stargard	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Wda Swiecie (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wda Swiecie

WLLLLDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
19/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	1-2	4-2	7	6	W
15/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
01/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	2	1	D
30/05	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	1-2	1-3	5	3	L
24/05	Pogon Szczecin II Poland III Liga	0-6	1-13	1	2	L
16/05	Tluchowia Tluchowo Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
13/05	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
09/05	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	0-0	3-0	4	2	W

Notec Czarnkow

LWDWWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
19/08	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
14/08	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	4	3	W
08/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
31/07	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-2	3-5	6	5	L
30/05	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	2-1	3-1	8	3	W
23/05	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	3-0	3-0	13	1	W
17/05	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
13/05	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
08/05	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wda Swiecie vs Notec Czarnkow?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wda Swiecie win (39%). Probabilities: Wda Swiecie 39%, draw 25%, Notec Czarnkow 36%.

How many goals are expected in Wda Swiecie vs Notec Czarnkow?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Wda Swiecie 1.64 · Notec Czarnkow 1.58), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Wda Swiecie vs Notec Czarnkow?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.