Football · Poland III Liga · 17/10, 12:00

Prediction: Gedania Gdansk vs Blekitni Stargard

Team pages: Gedania Gdansk · Blekitni Stargard

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.96Total

Gedania Gdansk1.71

Blekitni Stargard2.25

1X2

28% 22% 49%

Gedania Gdansk Draw Blekitni Stargard

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Gedania Gdansk 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDLLLDWLDW

Blekitni Stargard 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWDDWL

Head-to-head

Gedania Gdansk 3–3 Blekitni Stargard (6 last)

Blekitni Stargard2-1Gedania Gdansk
Gedania Gdansk0-2Blekitni Stargard
Gedania Gdansk3-1Blekitni Stargard
Blekitni Stargard1-2Gedania Gdansk
Blekitni Stargard1-2Gedania Gdansk
Gedania Gdansk2-5Blekitni Stargard

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gedania Gdansk 1480 · Blekitni Stargard 1536

	Gedania Gdansk	Draw	Blekitni Stargard
Our model	29%	22%	49%
Market	28%	23%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 3.96 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Blekitni Stargard (rating 1480 vs 1536).
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gedania Gdansk	Blekitni Stargard
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.1	2.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	1.9 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 4.8	4.2 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.90

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 1.15 · xG: 4.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:21 +14’	3.20	3.90	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gedania Gdansk 3–0–3 Blekitni Stargard

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/11/24 Poland III Liga	Blekitni Stargard	2-1 HT 1-1	Gedania Gdansk
03/08/24 Poland III Liga	Gedania Gdansk	0-2 HT 0-0	Blekitni Stargard
25/05/24 Poland III Liga	Gedania Gdansk	3-1 HT 1-1	Blekitni Stargard
04/11/23 Poland III Liga	Blekitni Stargard	1-2 HT 0-1	Gedania Gdansk
04/03/23 Poland III Liga	Blekitni Stargard	1-2 HT 0-1	Gedania Gdansk
06/08/22 Poland III Liga	Gedania Gdansk	2-5 HT 0-2	Blekitni Stargard

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	12	9	3	0	20	6	30
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	12	6	5	1	21	9	23
3	Naprzod Jedrzejow	12	7	2	3	28	21	23
4	Wisloka Debica	12	7	2	3	16	13	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	12	6	2	4	19	12	20
6	Czarni Polaniec	12	6	2	4	18	17	20
7	JKS Jaroslaw	12	5	2	5	28	22	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	12	4	5	3	21	20	17
9	Wisla Krakow II	12	4	4	4	15	17	16
10	Korona Kielce II	12	4	2	6	27	27	14
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	4	2	6	15	19	14
12	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	12	4	2	6	17	26	14
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	12	2	7	3	12	13	13
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	12	3	3	6	11	15	12
15	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	12	3	3	6	10	17	12
16	Star Starachowice	12	2	5	5	14	19	11
17	Moravia Morawica	12	2	3	7	13	22	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	12	2	2	8	12	22	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gedania Gdansk	Blekitni Stargard
Chemik Bydgoszcz	3-2 W	3-3 D
Victoria Wrzesnia	0-0 D	1-1 D
Baltyk Koszalin	1-3 L	2-0 W
KSS Kotwica Kornik	6-1 W	2-4 L
Flota Swinoujscie	1-1 D	5-1 W
KTS-K Luzino	0-4 L	2-1 W
Polonia Sroda Wlkp	3-4 L	1-4 L
Lech Poznan II	2-3 L	4-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Blekitni Stargard (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gedania Gdansk

DDLLLDWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	5	2	W
03/10	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
26/09	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	3	1	L
19/09	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	2-1	6-1	–	–	W
12/09	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	7	4	L
28/08	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-0	3-4	6	7	L
23/08	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
19/08	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
15/08	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D

Blekitni Stargard

WLWWLWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	2-2	3-4	16	6	L
03/10	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	4-0	5-0	1	2	W
26/09	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	3-2	3-3	1	2	D
19/09	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	6	6	D
12/09	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
05/09	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	2-2	2-4	8	5	L
29/08	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	3-0	5-1	–	–	W
23/08	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
19/08	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	–	–	L
15/08	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	4-2	4-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gedania Gdansk vs Blekitni Stargard?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Blekitni Stargard win (49%). Probabilities: Gedania Gdansk 28%, draw 22%, Blekitni Stargard 49%.

How many goals are expected in Gedania Gdansk vs Blekitni Stargard?

The model expects 3.96 goals (Gedania Gdansk 1.71 · Blekitni Stargard 2.25), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Gedania Gdansk vs Blekitni Stargard?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.