Football · Poland III Liga · 17/10, 13:00

Prediction: Kluczevia Stargard vs KTS-K Luzino

Team pages: Kluczevia Stargard · KTS-K Luzino

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

Kluczevia Stargard1.63

KTS-K Luzino1.73

1X2

36% 24% 40%

Kluczevia Stargard Draw KTS-K Luzino

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Kluczevia Stargard 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWWLWWLL

KTS-K Luzino 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWWLW

Head-to-head

Kluczevia Stargard 0–2 KTS-K Luzino (2 last)

KTS-K Luzino3-2Kluczevia Stargard
Kluczevia Stargard1-2KTS-K Luzino

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kluczevia Stargard 1525 · KTS-K Luzino 1584

	Kluczevia Stargard	Draw	KTS-K Luzino
Our model	36%	25%	40%
Market	36%	24%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KTS-K Luzino (rating 1525 vs 1584).
H2H favours KTS-K Luzino: 2-0-0.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kluczevia Stargard	KTS-K Luzino
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.5	2.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.4	2.7 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.70

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:31 +8’	2.50	3.70	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kluczevia Stargard 0–0–2 KTS-K Luzino

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Poland III Liga	KTS-K Luzino	3-2 HT 2-1	Kluczevia Stargard
16/11/25 Poland III Liga	Kluczevia Stargard	1-2 HT 0-1	KTS-K Luzino

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	12	9	3	0	20	6	30
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	12	6	5	1	21	9	23
3	Naprzod Jedrzejow	12	7	2	3	28	21	23
4	Wisloka Debica	12	7	2	3	16	13	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	12	6	2	4	19	12	20
6	Czarni Polaniec	12	6	2	4	18	17	20
7	JKS Jaroslaw	12	5	2	5	28	22	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	12	4	5	3	21	20	17
9	Wisla Krakow II	12	4	4	4	15	17	16
10	Korona Kielce II	12	4	2	6	27	27	14
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	4	2	6	15	19	14
12	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	12	4	2	6	17	26	14
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	12	2	7	3	12	13	13
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	12	3	3	6	11	15	12
15	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	12	3	3	6	10	17	12
16	Star Starachowice	12	2	5	5	14	19	11
17	Moravia Morawica	12	2	3	7	13	22	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	12	2	2	8	12	22	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kluczevia Stargard	KTS-K Luzino
Wda Swiecie	2-1 W	3-0 W
Elana Torun	2-1 W	1-3 L
Notec Czarnkow	1-3 L	2-0 W
Unia Swarzedz	2-0 W	3-1 W
Grom Nowy Staw	4-3 W	5-1 W
Gedania Gdansk	2-2 D	4-0 W
Lipno Steszew	4-1 W	2-1 W
Blekitni Stargard	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 1 L	6 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: KTS-K Luzino (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kluczevia Stargard

WWDWWLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
27/09	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
19/09	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
12/09	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
05/09	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
28/08	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
23/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-1	4-3	–	–	W
19/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	0-2	2-2	–	–	D
15/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	–	–	W
08/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W

KTS-K Luzino

WWLWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	8	2	W
03/10	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	2	7	L
26/09	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	8	8	W
19/09	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-1	3-1	4	5	W
11/09	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-0	5-1	2	0	W
05/09	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-0	4-0	8	4	W
28/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
23/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
19/08	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
14/08	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kluczevia Stargard vs KTS-K Luzino?

According to our model, the most likely result is an KTS-K Luzino win (40%). Probabilities: Kluczevia Stargard 36%, draw 24%, KTS-K Luzino 40%.

How many goals are expected in Kluczevia Stargard vs KTS-K Luzino?

The model expects 3.36 goals (Kluczevia Stargard 1.63 · KTS-K Luzino 1.73), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Kluczevia Stargard vs KTS-K Luzino?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.