Football · Poland III Liga · 07/11, 13:00

Prediction: Blekitni Stargard vs Notec Czarnkow

Team pages: Blekitni Stargard · Notec Czarnkow

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

Blekitni Stargard1.92

Notec Czarnkow1.32

1X2

51% 23% 26%

Blekitni Stargard Draw Notec Czarnkow

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Blekitni Stargard 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDDWLDWD

Notec Czarnkow 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDLWDLWL

Head-to-head

Blekitni Stargard 3–1–2 Notec Czarnkow (6 last)

Blekitni Stargard1-1Notec Czarnkow
Notec Czarnkow3-1Blekitni Stargard
Blekitni Stargard5-1Notec Czarnkow
Notec Czarnkow1-4Blekitni Stargard
Blekitni Stargard2-4Notec Czarnkow
Notec Czarnkow1-4Blekitni Stargard

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Blekitni Stargard 1530 · Notec Czarnkow 1471

	Blekitni Stargard	Draw	Notec Czarnkow
Our model	50%	24%	25%
Market	51%	22%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Blekitni Stargard (rating 1530 vs 1471).
H2H favours Blekitni Stargard: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Blekitni Stargard	Notec Czarnkow
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.6	1.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.9 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.7	2.8 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.75

X4.00

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:15 +3’	1.75	4.00	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Blekitni Stargard 3–1–2 Notec Czarnkow

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Poland III Liga	Blekitni Stargard	1-1 HT 1-0	Notec Czarnkow
02/11/25 Poland III Liga	Notec Czarnkow	3-1 HT 2-0	Blekitni Stargard
25/05/25 Poland III Liga	Blekitni Stargard	5-1 HT 3-1	Notec Czarnkow
02/11/24 Poland III Liga	Notec Czarnkow	1-4 HT 1-1	Blekitni Stargard
01/06/24 Poland III Liga	Blekitni Stargard	2-4 HT 1-1	Notec Czarnkow
11/11/23 Poland III Liga	Notec Czarnkow	1-4 HT 1-2	Blekitni Stargard

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	15	11	4	0	25	6	37
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	15	8	5	2	27	13	29
3	Wisloka Debica	15	9	2	4	23	17	29
4	Hetman Zamosc	15	7	5	3	28	22	26
5	Naprzod Jedrzejow	15	7	4	4	31	28	25
6	Czarni Polaniec	15	7	4	4	22	20	25
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	15	7	3	5	23	16	24
8	Wisla Krakow II	15	6	4	5	20	20	22
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	15	6	3	6	23	22	21
10	Star Starachowice	15	5	5	5	24	24	20
11	JKS Jaroslaw	15	5	3	7	31	28	18
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	15	3	7	5	14	17	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	15	4	4	7	15	19	16
14	Korona Kielce II	15	4	2	9	29	35	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	15	4	2	9	20	35	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	15	3	4	8	11	24	13
17	Moravia Morawica	15	3	3	9	19	26	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	15	3	2	10	17	30	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Blekitni Stargard	Notec Czarnkow
Chemik Bydgoszcz	3-3 D	1-4 L
Victoria Wrzesnia	1-1 D	1-0 W
Baltyk Koszalin	2-0 W	0-3 L
KSS Kotwica Kornik	2-4 L	1-1 D
Flota Swinoujscie	5-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Blekitni Stargard (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Blekitni Stargard

WLWDDWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
24/10	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-1	3-1	4	5	W
17/10	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	2-2	2-2	5	6	D
10/10	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	2-2	3-4	16	6	L
03/10	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	4-0	5-0	1	2	W
26/09	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	3-2	3-3	1	2	D
19/09	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	6	6	D
12/09	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
05/09	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	2-2	2-4	8	5	L
29/08	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	3-0	5-1	–	–	W

Notec Czarnkow

LWLDLWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	–	–	L
24/10	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	9	4	W
17/10	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
10/10	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
03/10	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
26/09	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	2	8	L
19/09	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	10	2	L
05/09	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
28/08	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Blekitni Stargard vs Notec Czarnkow?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Blekitni Stargard win (51%). Probabilities: Blekitni Stargard 51%, draw 23%, Notec Czarnkow 26%.

How many goals are expected in Blekitni Stargard vs Notec Czarnkow?

The model expects 3.24 goals (Blekitni Stargard 1.92 · Notec Czarnkow 1.32), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Blekitni Stargard vs Notec Czarnkow?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.