Football · Poland III Liga · 17/10, 12:00

Prediction: Grom Nowy Staw vs Chemik Bydgoszcz

Team pages: Grom Nowy Staw · Chemik Bydgoszcz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.97Total

Grom Nowy Staw2.11

Chemik Bydgoszcz1.86

1X2

43% 23% 34%

Grom Nowy Staw Draw Chemik Bydgoszcz

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Grom Nowy Staw 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Chemik Bydgoszcz 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Grom Nowy Staw 1473 · Chemik Bydgoszcz 1446

	Grom Nowy Staw	Draw	Chemik Bydgoszcz
Our model	44%	22%	34%
Market	43%	24%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.97 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Grom Nowy Staw	Chemik Bydgoszcz
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 2.6	1.5 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1.3	0.5 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	0/30/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.9	1.8 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	2.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.70

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 1.15 · xG: 4.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:31 +4’	2.10	3.70	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	12	9	3	0	20	6	30
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	12	6	5	1	21	9	23
3	Naprzod Jedrzejow	12	7	2	3	28	21	23
4	Wisloka Debica	12	7	2	3	16	13	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	12	6	2	4	19	12	20
6	Czarni Polaniec	12	6	2	4	18	17	20
7	JKS Jaroslaw	12	5	2	5	28	22	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	12	4	5	3	21	20	17
9	Wisla Krakow II	12	4	4	4	15	17	16
10	Korona Kielce II	12	4	2	6	27	27	14
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	4	2	6	15	19	14
12	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	12	4	2	6	17	26	14
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	12	2	7	3	12	13	13
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	12	3	3	6	11	15	12
15	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	12	3	3	6	10	17	12
16	Star Starachowice	12	2	5	5	14	19	11
17	Moravia Morawica	12	2	3	7	13	22	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	12	2	2	8	12	22	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Grom Nowy Staw	Chemik Bydgoszcz
Victoria Wrzesnia	0-1 L	2-2 D
Baltyk Koszalin	1-3 L	2-2 D
KSS Kotwica Kornik	3-1 W	1-4 L
Flota Swinoujscie	5-0 W	1-1 D
KTS-K Luzino	1-5 L	1-3 L
Polonia Sroda Wlkp	4-4 D	1-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 3 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Grom Nowy Staw

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
03/10	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-2	1-3	3	10	L
26/09	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	2-1	3-1	5	3	W
19/09	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	5-0	5-0	2	5	W
11/09	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-2	1-5	4	0	L
05/09	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	2-2	4-4	5	6	D
29/08	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	0-2	4-2	5	4	W
23/08	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	1-2	3-4	–	–	L
19/08	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	2-1	2-4	–	–	L
15/08	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	–	–	L

Chemik Bydgoszcz

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	0-1	2-3	6	2	L
03/10	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
26/09	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	2-3	3-3	1	2	D
19/09	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
12/09	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	11	4	D
05/09	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	3	4	D
28/08	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	3	3	L
22/08	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
19/08	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
14/08	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-4	1-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Grom Nowy Staw vs Chemik Bydgoszcz?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Grom Nowy Staw win (43%). Probabilities: Grom Nowy Staw 43%, draw 23%, Chemik Bydgoszcz 34%.

How many goals are expected in Grom Nowy Staw vs Chemik Bydgoszcz?

The model expects 3.97 goals (Grom Nowy Staw 2.11 · Chemik Bydgoszcz 1.86), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Grom Nowy Staw vs Chemik Bydgoszcz?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.