Football · Poland III Liga · 07/11, 12:00

Prediction: Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Elana Torun

Team pages: Chemik Bydgoszcz · Elana Torun

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Chemik Bydgoszcz1.55

Elana Torun1.68

1X2

35% 25% 40%

Chemik Bydgoszcz Draw Elana Torun

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Chemik Bydgoszcz 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Elana Torun 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chemik Bydgoszcz 1465 · Elana Torun 1518

	Chemik Bydgoszcz	Draw	Elana Torun
Our model	35%	25%	40%
Market	35%	25%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elana Torun (rating 1465 vs 1518).
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chemik Bydgoszcz	Elana Torun
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.1	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5	2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.4	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.60

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:57 +15’	2.55	3.60	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	15	11	4	0	25	6	37
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	15	8	5	2	27	13	29
3	Wisloka Debica	15	9	2	4	23	17	29
4	Hetman Zamosc	15	7	5	3	28	22	26
5	Naprzod Jedrzejow	15	7	4	4	31	28	25
6	Czarni Polaniec	15	7	4	4	22	20	25
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	15	7	3	5	23	16	24
8	Wisla Krakow II	15	6	4	5	20	20	22
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	15	6	3	6	23	22	21
10	Star Starachowice	15	5	5	5	24	24	20
11	JKS Jaroslaw	15	5	3	7	31	28	18
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	15	3	7	5	14	17	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	15	4	4	7	15	19	16
14	Korona Kielce II	15	4	2	9	29	35	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	15	4	2	9	20	35	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	15	3	4	8	11	24	13
17	Moravia Morawica	15	3	3	9	19	26	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	15	3	2	10	17	30	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chemik Bydgoszcz	Elana Torun
KKS 1925 Kalisz	1-1 D	1-5 L
Victoria Wrzesnia	2-2 D	0-0 D
Baltyk Koszalin	2-2 D	3-2 W
KSS Kotwica Kornik	1-4 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Elana Torun (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chemik Bydgoszcz

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	–	–	W
24/10	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
17/10	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	8	5	L
10/10	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	0-1	2-3	6	2	L
03/10	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
26/09	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	2-3	3-3	1	2	D
19/09	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
12/09	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	11	4	D
05/09	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	3	4	D
28/08	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	3	3	L

Elana Torun

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
24/10	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	5	3	W
17/10	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	2-1	3-1	6	2	W
09/10	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
03/10	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	4	7	W
26/09	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	8	3	D
19/09	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
12/09	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
04/09	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	2	7	L
29/08	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	1-2	1-5	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Elana Torun?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Elana Torun win (40%). Probabilities: Chemik Bydgoszcz 35%, draw 25%, Elana Torun 40%.

How many goals are expected in Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Elana Torun?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Chemik Bydgoszcz 1.55 · Elana Torun 1.68), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Elana Torun?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.