Football · Poland III Liga · 17/10, 13:00

Prediction: Unia Swarzedz vs Victoria Wrzesnia

Team pages: Unia Swarzedz · Victoria Wrzesnia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

Unia Swarzedz2.01

Victoria Wrzesnia1.14

1X2

57% 23% 20%

Unia Swarzedz Draw Victoria Wrzesnia

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Unia Swarzedz 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLDLLWWD

Victoria Wrzesnia 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LLWLDDDDDW

Head-to-head

Unia Swarzedz 2–1 Victoria Wrzesnia (3 last)

Unia Swarzedz2-1Victoria Wrzesnia
Victoria Wrzesnia3-1Unia Swarzedz
Victoria Wrzesnia1-5Unia Swarzedz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Unia Swarzedz 1498 · Victoria Wrzesnia 1482

	Unia Swarzedz	Draw	Victoria Wrzesnia
Our model	56%	23%	20%
Market	57%	22%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Unia Swarzedz: 2-0-1.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Unia Swarzedz	Victoria Wrzesnia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.7	1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.9	2.6 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	4.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.00

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:32 +6’	1.57	4.00	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Unia Swarzedz 2–0–1 Victoria Wrzesnia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/05/26 Poland III Liga	Unia Swarzedz	2-1 HT 0-0	Victoria Wrzesnia
25/10/25 Poland III Liga	Victoria Wrzesnia	3-1 HT 3-0	Unia Swarzedz
05/06/24 Poland Regional Cup	Victoria Wrzesnia	1-5 HT 1-2	Unia Swarzedz

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	12	9	3	0	20	6	30
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	12	6	5	1	21	9	23
3	Naprzod Jedrzejow	12	7	2	3	28	21	23
4	Wisloka Debica	12	7	2	3	16	13	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	12	6	2	4	19	12	20
6	Czarni Polaniec	12	6	2	4	18	17	20
7	JKS Jaroslaw	12	5	2	5	28	22	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	12	4	5	3	21	20	17
9	Wisla Krakow II	12	4	4	4	15	17	16
10	Korona Kielce II	12	4	2	6	27	27	14
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	4	2	6	15	19	14
12	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	12	4	2	6	17	26	14
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	12	2	7	3	12	13	13
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	12	3	3	6	11	15	12
15	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	12	3	3	6	10	17	12
16	Star Starachowice	12	2	5	5	14	19	11
17	Moravia Morawica	12	2	3	7	13	22	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	12	2	2	8	12	22	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Unia Swarzedz	Victoria Wrzesnia
Baltyk Koszalin	1-1 D	0-2 L
KSS Kotwica Kornik	7-0 W	1-0 W
Flota Swinoujscie	2-0 W	0-5 L
KTS-K Luzino	1-3 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Unia Swarzedz (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Unia Swarzedz

LWLLDLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	5	8	D
03/10	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	2-0	7-0	6	3	W
26/09	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
19/09	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	1-0	1-3	3	5	L
11/09	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-1	3-4	6	5	L
04/09	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	9	3	D
28/08	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	7	5	L
23/08	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
19/08	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-2	3-2	–	–	W
14/08	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	–	–	L

Victoria Wrzesnia

LLWLDDDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
03/10	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
26/09	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
19/09	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
12/09	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	11	4	D
05/09	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	2-2	3-3	–	–	D
29/08	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
22/08	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
19/08	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	0-1	0-5	–	–	L
14/08	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Unia Swarzedz vs Victoria Wrzesnia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Unia Swarzedz win (57%). Probabilities: Unia Swarzedz 57%, draw 23%, Victoria Wrzesnia 20%.

How many goals are expected in Unia Swarzedz vs Victoria Wrzesnia?

The model expects 3.15 goals (Unia Swarzedz 2.01 · Victoria Wrzesnia 1.14), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Unia Swarzedz vs Victoria Wrzesnia?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.