Football · Poland III Liga · 24/10, 13:00

Prediction: KSS Kotwica Kornik vs Wda Swiecie

Team pages: KSS Kotwica Kornik · Wda Swiecie

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.44Total

KSS Kotwica Kornik1.47

Wda Swiecie1.97

1X2

28% 23% 49%

KSS Kotwica Kornik Draw Wda Swiecie

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

KSS Kotwica Kornik 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Wda Swiecie 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWDLLLWW

Head-to-head

KSS Kotwica Kornik 1–1 Wda Swiecie (2 last)

KSS Kotwica Kornik2-0Wda Swiecie
Wda Swiecie2-1KSS Kotwica Kornik

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KSS Kotwica Kornik 1456 · Wda Swiecie 1533

	KSS Kotwica Kornik	Draw	Wda Swiecie
Our model	28%	24%	48%
Market	28%	23%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 3.44 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wda Swiecie (rating 1456 vs 1533).
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KSS Kotwica Kornik	Wda Swiecie
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.6	1.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.1	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.3	4.3 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.90

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:07 +8’	3.20	3.90	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KSS Kotwica Kornik 1–0–1 Wda Swiecie

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/25 Poland III Liga	KSS Kotwica Kornik	2-0 HT 2-0	Wda Swiecie
07/09/24 Poland III Liga	Wda Swiecie	2-1 HT 1-0	KSS Kotwica Kornik

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	13	9	4	0	20	6	31
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	13	7	5	1	24	10	26
3	Wisloka Debica	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	13	7	2	4	28	25	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	13	6	3	4	20	13	21
6	Czarni Polaniec	13	6	3	4	18	17	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	5	5	3	25	22	20
8	JKS Jaroslaw	13	5	2	6	29	25	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	5	2	6	19	19	17
10	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	13	3	7	3	13	13	16
11	Wisla Krakow II	13	4	4	5	15	18	16
12	Wieczysta Krakow II	13	4	3	6	12	15	15
13	Star Starachowice	13	3	5	5	18	20	14
14	Korona Kielce II	13	4	2	7	28	31	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	13	4	2	7	19	30	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	2	3	8	13	23	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	13	2	2	9	12	26	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KSS Kotwica Kornik	Wda Swiecie
Elana Torun	1-3 L	2-1 W
Notec Czarnkow	1-1 D	2-1 W
Unia Swarzedz	0-7 L	1-0 W
Grom Nowy Staw	1-3 L	4-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Wda Swiecie (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KSS Kotwica Kornik

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-2	1-3	2	2	L
10/10	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
03/10	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-2	0-7	8	3	L
26/09	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	1-2	1-3	1	3	L
19/09	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-2	1-6	–	–	L
12/09	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	3	1	W
05/09	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	2-2	4-2	4	5	W
28/08	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	2	3	W
22/08	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
19/08	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

Wda Swiecie

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
14/10	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	1	7	W
10/10	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	7	2	L
03/10	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	9	5	L
19/09	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	2	5	L
12/09	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
04/09	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	10	7	W
28/08	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	11	2	W
23/08	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
19/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	1-2	4-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KSS Kotwica Kornik vs Wda Swiecie?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Wda Swiecie win (49%). Probabilities: KSS Kotwica Kornik 28%, draw 23%, Wda Swiecie 49%.

How many goals are expected in KSS Kotwica Kornik vs Wda Swiecie?

The model expects 3.44 goals (KSS Kotwica Kornik 1.47 · Wda Swiecie 1.97), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in KSS Kotwica Kornik vs Wda Swiecie?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.