Football · Poland III Liga · 07/11, 12:00

Prediction: KSS Kotwica Kornik vs Lech Poznan II

Team pages: KSS Kotwica Kornik · Lech Poznan II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.22Total

KSS Kotwica Kornik1.48

Lech Poznan II2.75

1X2

18% 19% 63%

KSS Kotwica Kornik Draw Lech Poznan II

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

KSS Kotwica Kornik 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWWLLLDLLL

Lech Poznan II 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

KSS Kotwica Kornik 1–1–0 Lech Poznan II (2 last)

KSS Kotwica Kornik2-0Lech Poznan II
Lech Poznan II1-1KSS Kotwica Kornik

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KSS Kotwica Kornik 1447 · Lech Poznan II 1504

	KSS Kotwica Kornik	Draw	Lech Poznan II
Our model	18%	18%	64%
Market	18%	19%	63%

Estimated total (ours) 4.22 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lech Poznan II (rating 1447 vs 1504).
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KSS Kotwica Kornik	Lech Poznan II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.7	2.7 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.2	1.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.8	3.9 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

15.00

X4.75

21.42

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.98

2 (-1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 4.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:14 +4’	5.00	4.75	1.42

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KSS Kotwica Kornik 1–1–0 Lech Poznan II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/03/25 Poland III Liga	KSS Kotwica Kornik	2-0 HT 1-0	Lech Poznan II
10/08/24 Poland III Liga	Lech Poznan II	1-1 HT 1-1	KSS Kotwica Kornik

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	15	11	4	0	25	6	37
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	15	8	5	2	27	13	29
3	Wisloka Debica	15	9	2	4	23	17	29
4	Hetman Zamosc	15	7	5	3	28	22	26
5	Naprzod Jedrzejow	15	7	4	4	31	28	25
6	Czarni Polaniec	15	7	4	4	22	20	25
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	15	7	3	5	23	16	24
8	Wisla Krakow II	15	6	4	5	20	20	22
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	15	6	3	6	23	22	21
10	Star Starachowice	15	5	5	5	24	24	20
11	JKS Jaroslaw	15	5	3	7	31	28	18
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	15	3	7	5	14	17	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	15	4	4	7	15	19	16
14	Korona Kielce II	15	4	2	9	29	35	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	15	4	2	9	20	35	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	15	3	4	8	11	24	13
17	Moravia Morawica	15	3	3	9	19	26	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	15	3	2	10	17	30	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KSS Kotwica Kornik	Lech Poznan II
Kluczevia Stargard	0-1 L	3-4 L
Wda Swiecie	0-2 L	1-4 L
Elana Torun	1-3 L	0-0 D
Notec Czarnkow	1-1 D	2-1 W
Unia Swarzedz	0-7 L	1-1 D
Grom Nowy Staw	1-3 L	2-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 5 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Lech Poznan II (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KSS Kotwica Kornik

WWWLLLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
24/10	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
17/10	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-2	1-3	2	2	L
10/10	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
03/10	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-2	0-7	8	3	L
26/09	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	1-2	1-3	1	3	L
19/09	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-2	1-6	–	–	L
12/09	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	3	1	W
05/09	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	2-2	4-2	4	5	W
28/08	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	2	3	W

Lech Poznan II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/11	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	3-1	3-4	2	4	L
31/10	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	3-0	8-1	3	2	W
24/10	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	3-0	4-2	6	3	W
18/10	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-2	2-3	5	7	L
14/10	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	13	7	L
10/10	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	3-0	4-2	10	2	W
19/09	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	11	1	D
12/09	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	7	2	W
04/09	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
29/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-0	2-4	8	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KSS Kotwica Kornik vs Lech Poznan II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lech Poznan II win (63%). Probabilities: KSS Kotwica Kornik 18%, draw 19%, Lech Poznan II 63%.

How many goals are expected in KSS Kotwica Kornik vs Lech Poznan II?

The model expects 4.22 goals (KSS Kotwica Kornik 1.48 · Lech Poznan II 2.75), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in KSS Kotwica Kornik vs Lech Poznan II?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.