Football · Poland III Liga · 07/11, 12:00

Prediction: Baltyk Koszalin vs Kluczevia Stargard

Team pages: Baltyk Koszalin · Kluczevia Stargard

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Baltyk Koszalin1.35

Kluczevia Stargard1.87

1X2

27% 24% 49%

Baltyk Koszalin Draw Kluczevia Stargard

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Baltyk Koszalin 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDLLWWDWLD

Kluczevia Stargard 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWLLWDWW

Head-to-head

Baltyk Koszalin 3–0 Kluczevia Stargard (3 last)

Baltyk Koszalin4-3Kluczevia Stargard
Kluczevia Stargard0-2Baltyk Koszalin
Baltyk Koszalin4-1Kluczevia Stargard

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Baltyk Koszalin 1517 · Kluczevia Stargard 1530

	Baltyk Koszalin	Draw	Kluczevia Stargard
Our model	27%	25%	49%
Market	27%	23%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Baltyk Koszalin: 3-0-0.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Baltyk Koszalin	Kluczevia Stargard
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.3	1.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 6.7	2.4 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.90

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
15:11 +7’	3.25	3.90	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Baltyk Koszalin 3–0–0 Kluczevia Stargard

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/25 Poland IV Liga	Baltyk Koszalin	4-3 HT 0-2	Kluczevia Stargard
23/04/22 Poland III Liga	Kluczevia Stargard	0-2 HT 0-1	Baltyk Koszalin
12/09/21 Poland III Liga	Baltyk Koszalin	4-1 HT 3-0	Kluczevia Stargard

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	15	11	4	0	25	6	37
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	15	8	5	2	27	13	29
3	Wisloka Debica	15	9	2	4	23	17	29
4	Hetman Zamosc	15	7	5	3	28	22	26
5	Naprzod Jedrzejow	15	7	4	4	31	28	25
6	Czarni Polaniec	15	7	4	4	22	20	25
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	15	7	3	5	23	16	24
8	Wisla Krakow II	15	6	4	5	20	20	22
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	15	6	3	6	23	22	21
10	Star Starachowice	15	5	5	5	24	24	20
11	JKS Jaroslaw	15	5	3	7	31	28	18
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	15	3	7	5	14	17	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	15	4	4	7	15	19	16
14	Korona Kielce II	15	4	2	9	29	35	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	15	4	2	9	20	35	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	15	3	4	8	11	24	13
17	Moravia Morawica	15	3	3	9	19	26	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	15	3	2	10	17	30	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Baltyk Koszalin	Kluczevia Stargard
Wda Swiecie	1-1 D	2-1 W
Elana Torun	2-3 L	2-1 W
Notec Czarnkow	3-0 W	1-3 L
Unia Swarzedz	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Kluczevia Stargard (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Baltyk Koszalin

WDLLWWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
24/10	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-1	2-3	10	3	L
17/10	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
10/10	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	9	8	D
03/10	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-0	3-1	2	10	W
26/09	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	8	1	W
19/09	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	7	3	L
12/09	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
05/09	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	3	4	D
29/08	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W

Kluczevia Stargard

WLWWLLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/11	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	1-3	4-3	4	4	W
31/10	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
24/10	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	2-0	2-2	4	6	D
17/10	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	3	4	W
09/10	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
27/09	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
19/09	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
12/09	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
05/09	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
28/08	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Baltyk Koszalin vs Kluczevia Stargard?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Kluczevia Stargard win (49%). Probabilities: Baltyk Koszalin 27%, draw 24%, Kluczevia Stargard 49%.

How many goals are expected in Baltyk Koszalin vs Kluczevia Stargard?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Baltyk Koszalin 1.35 · Kluczevia Stargard 1.87), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Baltyk Koszalin vs Kluczevia Stargard?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.