Football · Poland III Liga · 07/11, 12:00

Prediction: Wisla Krakow II vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Team pages: Wisla Krakow II · Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.01Total

Wisla Krakow II1.84

Siarka Tarnobrzeg1.17

1X2

53% 23% 24%

Wisla Krakow II Draw Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Wisla Krakow II 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDDLWLWW

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWLLLWWD

Head-to-head

Wisla Krakow II 1–2–1 Siarka Tarnobrzeg (4 last)

Siarka Tarnobrzeg1-2Wisla Krakow II
Wisla Krakow II2-2Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg2-0Wisla Krakow II
Wisla Krakow II1-1Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wisla Krakow II 1501 · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1523

	Wisla Krakow II	Draw	Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Our model	52%	25%	23%
Market	54%	22%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wisla Krakow II	Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.7	1.3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X4.10

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:55 +17’	1.67	4.10	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wisla Krakow II 1–2–1 Siarka Tarnobrzeg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Poland III Liga	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	1-2 HT 1-1	Wisla Krakow II
31/10/25 Poland III Liga	Wisla Krakow II	2-2 HT 1-0	Siarka Tarnobrzeg
07/06/25 Poland III Liga	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	2-0 HT 2-0	Wisla Krakow II
17/11/24 Poland III Liga	Wisla Krakow II	1-1 HT 0-0	Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	15	11	4	0	25	6	37
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	15	8	5	2	27	13	29
3	Wisloka Debica	15	9	2	4	23	17	29
4	Hetman Zamosc	15	7	5	3	28	22	26
5	Naprzod Jedrzejow	15	7	4	4	31	28	25
6	Czarni Polaniec	15	7	4	4	22	20	25
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	15	7	3	5	23	16	24
8	Wisla Krakow II	15	6	4	5	20	20	22
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	15	6	3	6	23	22	21
10	Star Starachowice	15	5	5	5	24	24	20
11	JKS Jaroslaw	15	5	3	7	31	28	18
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	15	3	7	5	14	17	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	15	4	4	7	15	19	16
14	Korona Kielce II	15	4	2	9	29	35	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	15	4	2	9	20	35	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	15	3	4	8	11	24	13
17	Moravia Morawica	15	3	3	9	19	26	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	15	3	2	10	17	30	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wisla Krakow II	Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Wieczysta Krakow II	2-1 W	2-0 W
Wisloka Debica	3-1 W	1-0 W
Chelmianka Chelm	0-2 L	1-1 D
Naprzod Jedrzejow	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Siarka Tarnobrzeg (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wisla Krakow II

DLLDDLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
24/10	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	2-0	3-1	5	5	W
17/10	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
10/10	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
04/10	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	13	2	L
25/09	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	6	2	D
19/09	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	1-0	3-3	–	–	D
12/09	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
05/09	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
30/08	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	5	6	D

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

WWDWLLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
24/10	Moravia Morawica Poland III Liga	1-1	3-2	–	–	W
17/10	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
09/10	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	0-3	1-4	5	2	L
03/10	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
26/09	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	5	7	L
19/09	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
29/08	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wisla Krakow II vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wisla Krakow II win (53%). Probabilities: Wisla Krakow II 53%, draw 23%, Siarka Tarnobrzeg 24%.

How many goals are expected in Wisla Krakow II vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?

The model expects 3.01 goals (Wisla Krakow II 1.84 · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1.17), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow II vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.