Football · Poland III Liga · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Star Starachowice vs Korona Kielce II

Team pages: Star Starachowice · Korona Kielce II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.49Total

Star Starachowice1.87

Korona Kielce II1.62

1X2

43% 24% 33%

Star Starachowice Draw Korona Kielce II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Star Starachowice 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLDLDWDL

Korona Kielce II 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWLDLWWW

Head-to-head

Star Starachowice 3–1–2 Korona Kielce II (6 last)

Korona Kielce II3-2Star Starachowice
Star Starachowice3-2Korona Kielce II
Korona Kielce II0-0Star Starachowice
Star Starachowice1-4Korona Kielce II
Star Starachowice4-1Korona Kielce II
Korona Kielce II1-3Star Starachowice

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Star Starachowice 1475 · Korona Kielce II 1502

	Star Starachowice	Draw	Korona Kielce II
Our model	43%	24%	33%
Market	43%	24%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.49 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Star Starachowice: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Star Starachowice	Korona Kielce II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	2.2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 4.9	2.5 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	3.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.70

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.75 → 2.75	Pinn 2.88 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:48 +5’	2.10	3.70	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:12 +66’	2.04	3.47	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Star Starachowice 3–1–2 Korona Kielce II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/04/26 Poland III Liga	Korona Kielce II	3-2 HT 0-1	Star Starachowice
13/09/25 Poland III Liga	Star Starachowice	3-2 HT 2-1	Korona Kielce II
16/07/25 Europe Friendlies	Korona Kielce II	0-0	Star Starachowice
07/06/25 Poland III Liga	Star Starachowice	1-4 HT 0-2	Korona Kielce II
08/02/25 Europe Friendlies	Star Starachowice	4-1 HT 3-0	Korona Kielce II
16/11/24 Poland III Liga	Korona Kielce II	1-3 HT 0-2	Star Starachowice

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	12	9	3	0	20	6	30
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	12	6	5	1	21	9	23
3	Naprzod Jedrzejow	12	7	2	3	28	21	23
4	Wisloka Debica	12	7	2	3	16	13	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	12	6	2	4	19	12	20
6	Czarni Polaniec	12	6	2	4	18	17	20
7	JKS Jaroslaw	12	5	2	5	28	22	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	12	4	5	3	21	20	17
9	Wisla Krakow II	12	4	4	4	15	17	16
10	Korona Kielce II	12	4	2	6	27	27	14
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	4	2	6	15	19	14
12	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	12	4	2	6	17	26	14
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	12	2	7	3	12	13	13
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	12	3	3	6	11	15	12
15	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	12	3	3	6	10	17	12
16	Star Starachowice	12	2	5	5	14	19	11
17	Moravia Morawica	12	2	3	7	13	22	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	12	2	2	8	12	22	8

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Star Starachowice	Korona Kielce II
Podlasie Biala Podlaska	2-2 D	4-0 W
Siarka Tarnobrzeg	4-1 W	2-1 W
Wieczysta Krakow II	0-0 D	1-0 W
Wisloka Debica	2-3 L	0-1 L
Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	0-0 D	2-2 D
JKS Jaroslaw	0-3 L	2-6 L
AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	1-1 D	4-1 W
Czarni Polaniec	2-0 W	3-4 L
Hetman Zamosc	0-3 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Korona Kielce II (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Star Starachowice

LWDLDLDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
01/10	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	2	2	D
26/09	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	5	7	W
19/09	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
13/09	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	5	2	L
04/09	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
29/08	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
22/08	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
19/08	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	7	6	W
15/08	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	–	–	L

Korona Kielce II

LDLWLDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	1-0	4-0	4	3	W
03/10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
26/09	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	10	2	W
19/09	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
12/09	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-1	2-2	7	6	D
05/09	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	1-3	2-6	5	7	L
29/08	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	2-1	4-1	–	–	W
22/08	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	0-1	3-4	2	5	L
19/08	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	2-0	2-2	3	2	D
14/08	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-3	2-3	7	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Star Starachowice vs Korona Kielce II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Star Starachowice win (43%). Probabilities: Star Starachowice 43%, draw 24%, Korona Kielce II 33%.

How many goals are expected in Star Starachowice vs Korona Kielce II?

The model expects 3.49 goals (Star Starachowice 1.87 · Korona Kielce II 1.62), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Star Starachowice vs Korona Kielce II?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.