Football · Spain La Liga · 16/08, 17:00
Prediction: Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano
Team pages: Sevilla · Rayo Vallecano
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.02Total
Sevilla1.13
Rayo Vallecano0.89
1X2
Sevilla
Draw
Rayo Vallecano
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 67%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Sevilla
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Rayo Vallecano
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sevilla
3–3–0
Rayo Vallecano
(6 last)
- Sevilla1-1Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano0-1Sevilla
- Rayo Vallecano1-1Sevilla
- Sevilla1-0Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano1-2Sevilla
- Sevilla2-2Rayo Vallecano
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sevilla 1509 · Rayo Vallecano 1524
| Sevilla | Draw | Rayo Vallecano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 33% | 27% |
| Market | 41% | 30% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Sevilla: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sevilla | Rayo Vallecano | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.9 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/80/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.5 | 1.9 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.3 | 4.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sevilla 3–3–0 Rayo Vallecano
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 Spain La Liga | Sevilla | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Rayo Vallecano |
| 28/09/25 Spain La Liga | Rayo Vallecano | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Sevilla |
| 01/03/25 Spain La Liga | Rayo Vallecano | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Sevilla |
| 24/11/24 Spain La Liga | Sevilla | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Rayo Vallecano |
| 05/02/24 Spain La Liga | Rayo Vallecano | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Sevilla |
| 07/10/23 Spain La Liga | Sevilla | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Rayo Vallecano |
Standings · Spain La Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Athletic Bilbao | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Elche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CD Alaves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Espanyol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Getafe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Levante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Malaga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Racing Santander | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rayo Vallecano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Celta Vigo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Deportivo La Coruna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sevilla | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Valencia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sevilla
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | AD Ceuta FC Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 23/07 | Cordoba Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 19/07 | Cracovia Krakow Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 11/07 | Juventud Torremolinos CF Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | Celta Vigo Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | Real Madrid Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 13/05 | Villarreal Spain La Liga |
2-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Espanyol Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 04/05 | Real Sociedad Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | Osasuna Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
Rayo Vallecano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Feyenoord Elite Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 17/07 | Hearts Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 27/05 | Crystal Palace UEFA Conference League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 23/05 | CD Alaves Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Villarreal Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 14/05 | Valencia Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 11/05 | Girona Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 07/05 | Strasbourg UEFA Conference League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | Getafe Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 30/04 | Strasbourg UEFA Conference League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sevilla win (40%). Probabilities: Sevilla 40%, draw 31%, Rayo Vallecano 28%.
How many goals are expected in Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano?
The model expects 2.02 goals (Sevilla 1.13 · Rayo Vallecano 0.89), with a 57% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.