Football · Spain La Liga · 23/08, 17:00
Prediction: Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal
Team pages: Atletico Madrid · Villarreal
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.76Total
Atletico Madrid1.66
Villarreal1.1
1X2
Atletico Madrid
Draw
Villarreal
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Atletico Madrid
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Villarreal
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atletico Madrid
3–2–1
Villarreal
(6 last)
- Villarreal5-1Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid2-0Villarreal
- Atletico Madrid1-1Villarreal
- Villarreal2-2Atletico Madrid
- Villarreal1-2Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid3-1Villarreal
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atletico Madrid 1498 · Villarreal 1521
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Market | 50% | 25% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Atletico Madrid: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico Madrid | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.5 | 2 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 1.1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 6 | 2.8 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.1 | 2.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Madrid 3–2–1 Villarreal
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 Spain La Liga | Villarreal | 5-1 HT 4-1 | Atletico Madrid |
| 13/09/25 Spain La Liga | Atletico Madrid | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Villarreal |
| 25/01/25 Spain La Liga | Atletico Madrid | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Villarreal |
| 19/08/24 Spain La Liga | Villarreal | 2-2 HT 2-2 | Atletico Madrid |
| 01/04/24 Spain La Liga | Villarreal | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Atletico Madrid |
| 12/11/23 Spain La Liga | Atletico Madrid | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Villarreal |
Standings · Spain La Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Athletic Bilbao | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Elche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CD Alaves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Espanyol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Getafe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Levante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Malaga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Racing Santander | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rayo Vallecano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Celta Vigo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Deportivo La Coruna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sevilla | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Valencia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico Madrid
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Man City Elite Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 01/08 | Man Utd Elite Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 29/07 | Getafe Elite Club Friendlies |
2-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 24/05 | Villarreal Spain La Liga |
1-4 | 1-5 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | Girona Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 12/05 | Osasuna Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 11 | W |
| 09/05 | Celta Vigo Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 05/05 | Arsenal UEFA Champions League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Valencia Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 29/04 | Arsenal UEFA Champions League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
Villarreal
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Galatasaray Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 05/08 | Levante Elite Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 01/08 | Lens Elite Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 25/07 | PSV Elite Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 17/07 | Benfica Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 24/05 | Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga |
4-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 13/05 | Sevilla Spain La Liga |
2-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Mallorca Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Levante Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 5-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Madrid win (50%). Probabilities: Atletico Madrid 50%, draw 25%, Villarreal 25%.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal?
The model expects 2.76 goals (Atletico Madrid 1.66 · Villarreal 1.1), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.