Football · Spain La Liga · 23/08, 21:30

Prediction: Elche vs Barcelona

Team pages: Elche · Barcelona

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Elche0.69

Barcelona2.24

1X2

9% 19% 72%

Elche Draw Barcelona

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

Elche 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LDLWDWDDDW

Barcelona 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWLDWL

Head-to-head

Elche 0–6 Barcelona (6 last)

Elche1-3Barcelona
Barcelona3-1Elche
Elche0-4Barcelona
Barcelona3-0Elche
Elche1-2Barcelona
Barcelona3-2Elche

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Elche 1505 · Barcelona 1582

	Elche	Draw	Barcelona
Our model	9%	19%	72%
Market	9%	19%	72%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barcelona (rating 1505 vs 1582).
H2H favours Barcelona: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Elche	Barcelona
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	44/33/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3	2.9 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

110.00

X5.00

21.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.98

2 (-1.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
18:22 +12’	10.00	5.00	1.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Elche 0–0–6 Barcelona

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 Spain La Liga	Elche	1-3 HT 1-2	Barcelona
02/11/25 Spain La Liga	Barcelona	3-1 HT 2-1	Elche
01/04/23 Spain La Liga	Elche	0-4 HT 0-1	Barcelona
17/09/22 Spain La Liga	Barcelona	3-0 HT 2-0	Elche
06/03/22 Spain La Liga	Elche	1-2 HT 1-0	Barcelona
18/12/21 Spain La Liga	Barcelona	3-2 HT 2-0	Elche

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Athletic Bilbao	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Elche	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Alaves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Levante	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rayo Vallecano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Deportivo La Coruna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sevilla	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Elche	Barcelona
Getafe	1-0 W	2-0 W
Real Betis	1-2 L	3-1 W
CD Alaves	1-1 D	0-1 L
Celta Vigo	1-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Barcelona (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Elche

LDLWDWDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Toulouse Europe Friendlies	1-0	3-0	0	4	W
31/07	Cordoba Europe Friendlies	0-2	2-2	–	–	D
28/07	Al Ain SCC World Club Friendlies	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
24/07	Johor Darul Takzim World Club Friendlies	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
18/07	Kaizer Chiefs World Club Friendlies	2-0	2-1	4	3	W
23/05	Girona Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	1	8	D
17/05	Getafe Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
12/05	Real Betis Spain La Liga	1-1	1-2	1	6	L
09/05	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	7	9	D
03/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-2	1-3	2	3	L

Barcelona

WWWWLWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Udinese Club Friendly List	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
08/08	Nottm Forest Club Friendly List	–	1-0	–	–	W
31/07	Birmingham Elite Club Friendlies	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
23/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	1-3	8	4	L
17/05	Real Betis Spain La Liga	1-0	3-1	6	1	W
13/05	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
10/05	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	2-0	2-0	4	6	W
02/05	Osasuna Spain La Liga	0-0	2-1	7	3	W
25/04	Getafe Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
22/04	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Elche vs Barcelona?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Barcelona win (72%). Probabilities: Elche 9%, draw 19%, Barcelona 72%.

How many goals are expected in Elche vs Barcelona?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Elche 0.69 · Barcelona 2.24), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Elche vs Barcelona?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.