Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 24/07, 00:30
Prediction: Sarmiento vs Argentinos Jrs
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.03Total
Sarmiento0.75
Argentinos Jrs1.28
1X2
Sarmiento
Draw
Argentinos Jrs
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 67%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
0-1
Recent form · 10 last
Sarmiento
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Argentinos Jrs
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sarmiento
2–2–2
Argentinos Jrs
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sarmiento 1492 · Argentinos Jrs 1547
| Sarmiento | Draw | Argentinos Jrs | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 32% | 48% |
| Market | 21% | 31% | 48% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.03 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Argentinos Jrs (rating 1492 vs 1547).
- Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sarmiento | Argentinos Jrs | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.1 | 1.4 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 2.9 | 3.2 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.4 | 6.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sarmiento 2–2–2 Argentinos Jrs
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/01/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Argentinos Jrs | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Sarmiento |
| 08/08/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Argentinos Jrs | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sarmiento |
| 08/04/23 Argentina Liga Profesional | Sarmiento | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Argentinos Jrs |
| 11/06/22 Argentina Liga Profesional | Sarmiento | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Argentinos Jrs |
| 26/04/22 Argentina Liga Profesional | Argentinos Jrs | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sarmiento |
| 11/12/21 Argentina Liga Profesional | Argentinos Jrs | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Sarmiento |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentinos Jrs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Atlético Tucumán | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Aldosivi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Banfield | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Barracas Central | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Belgrano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Huracan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | River Plate | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rosario Central | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sarmiento | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CA Tigre | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Gimnasia LP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Independiente Rivadavia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Racing Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sarmiento | Argentinos Jrs |
|---|---|---|
| Belgrano | 0-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Gimnasia LP | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Aldosivi | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sarmiento
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05 | Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 20/04 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 13/04 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 09/04 | Tristan Suarez Argentina Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 02/04 | Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 22/03 | Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 15/03 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 11/03 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 03/03 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
Argentinos Jrs
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05 | Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 10 | D |
| 13/05 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 8 | D |
| 10/05 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 03/05 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 11 | 9 | L |
| 28/04 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 19/04 | Atlético Tucumán Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 11/04 | Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 07/04 | Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 31/03 | Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 27/03 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sarmiento vs Argentinos Jrs?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Argentinos Jrs win (48%). Probabilities: Sarmiento 21%, draw 31%, Argentinos Jrs 48%.
How many goals are expected in Sarmiento vs Argentinos Jrs?
The model expects 2.03 goals (Sarmiento 0.75 · Argentinos Jrs 1.28), with a 53% chance of over 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Sarmiento vs Argentinos Jrs?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.