Football · Paraguay Women League · 20/07, 19:30

Prediction: Cerro Porteno (W) vs Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.2Total

Cerro Porteno (W)3.1

Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)1.1

1X2

81% 12% 7%

Cerro Porteno (W) Draw Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

Cerro Porteno (W) 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWLDWL

Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLWLLWWW

Head-to-head

Cerro Porteno (W) 1–0 Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) (1 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cerro Porteno (W) 1575 · Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) 1520

	Cerro Porteno (W)	Draw	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)
Our model	76%	14%	10%
Market	85%	11%	5%

Estimated total (ours) 4.2 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cerro Porteno (W) (rating 1575 vs 1520).
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cerro Porteno (W)	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	3.6 / 0.5	3 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.4	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 7	2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	4 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.06

X8.50

219.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3)1.82

2 (+3)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 41.93

Under 41.88

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 4.55

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.06 → 1.06	Bet365 1.06
X	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
2	19.00 → 19.00	Bet365 19.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:57 +8’	1.06	8.50	19.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cerro Porteno (W) 1–0–0 Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Paraguay Women League	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	0-3 HT 0-2	Cerro Porteno (W)

Standings · Paraguay Women League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Libertad Limpeno (W)	12	10	2	0	54	6	32
2	Club Guarani (W)	12	9	2	1	26	11	29
3	Olimpia Asuncion (W)	10	8	2	0	46	1	26
4	Cerro Porteno (W)	12	7	2	3	40	8	23
5	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	12	6	0	6	33	28	18
6	Sportivo Trinidense (W)	11	5	2	4	15	16	17
7	Nacional-Humaita (W)	13	5	1	7	22	29	16
8	Deportivo Recoleta (W)	11	4	1	6	16	27	13
9	2 de Mayo (W)	12	3	0	9	17	39	9
10	Rubio Nu (W)	11	2	2	7	9	33	8
11	Sportivo Luqueno (W)	11	1	2	8	6	46	5
12	Sportivo Ameliano (W)	11	0	2	9	7	47	2

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cerro Porteno (W)	Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)
Libertad Limpeno (W)	0-1 L	1-3 L
Rubio Nu (W)	6-0 W	5-0 W
Sportivo Trinidense (W)	1-1 D	1-4 L
Club Guarani (W)	1-2 L	2-3 L
Deportivo Recoleta (W)	7-0 W	1-0 W
Sportivo Ameliano (W)	4-0 W	7-0 W
Olimpia Asuncion (W)	0-0 D	0-7 L
Nacional-Humaita (W)	6-1 W	4-1 W
2 de Mayo (W)	2-0 W	3-1 W
Sportivo Luqueno (W)	9-0 W	6-1 W
Record vs common	6 W 2 D 2 L	6 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Cerro Porteno (W) (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cerro Porteno (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/07	Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
29/06	Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League	2-0	6-0	8	2	W
30/05	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
23/05	Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League	0-2	1-2	5	5	L
16/05	Deportivo Recoleta (W) Paraguay Women League	3-0	7-0	11	0	W
11/05	Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	4-0	9	2	W
03/05	Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
26/04	Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League	2-1	6-1	11	1	W
23/04	2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League	2-0	2-0	5	2	W
28/03	Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League	2-0	9-0	11	3	W

Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)

WWLLWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/07	Nacional-Humaita (W) Paraguay Women League	1-1	4-1	3	6	W
28/06	2 de Mayo (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
31/05	Sportivo Luqueno (W) Paraguay Women League	4-1	6-1	2	5	W
23/05	Olimpia Asuncion (W) Paraguay Women League	0-2	0-7	0	2	L
17/05	Libertad Limpeno (W) Paraguay Women League	0-2	1-3	2	5	L
09/05	Rubio Nu (W) Paraguay Women League	2-0	5-0	6	5	W
02/05	Sportivo Trinidense (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	1-4	5	10	L
26/04	Club Guarani (W) Paraguay Women League	0-2	2-3	2	3	L
20/04	Deportivo Recoleta (W) Paraguay Women League	1-0	1-0	10	4	W
27/03	Sportivo Ameliano (W) Paraguay Women League	2-0	7-0	6	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cerro Porteno (W) vs Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cerro Porteno (W) win (81%). Probabilities: Cerro Porteno (W) 81%, draw 12%, Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) 7%.

How many goals are expected in Cerro Porteno (W) vs Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)?

The model expects 4.2 goals (Cerro Porteno (W) 3.1 · Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) 1.1), with a 50% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Cerro Porteno (W) vs Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.