Football · Denmark Division 2 · 24/10, 13:30

Prediction: VSK Arhus vs Naestved

Team pages: VSK Arhus · Naestved

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.42Total

VSK Arhus1.13

Naestved1.29

1X2

32% 28% 40%

VSK Arhus Draw Naestved

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

VSK Arhus 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLDDWLLD

Naestved 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WLWDWDDDDW

Head-to-head

VSK Arhus 1–1–1 Naestved (3 last)

Naestved0-2VSK Arhus
Naestved2-2VSK Arhus
VSK Arhus1-3Naestved

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · VSK Arhus 1482 · Naestved 1543

	VSK Arhus	Draw	Naestved
Our model	31%	30%	39%
Market	33%	27%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Naestved (rating 1482 vs 1543).
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	VSK Arhus	Naestved
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.6	1.9 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.30

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.70▲	Bet365 2.70
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.47
2	2.45 → 2.20▼	Pinn 2.32 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.8% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
11:42 +30’	2.45	3.30	2.45
13:04 +7’	2.70▲	3.30	2.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:51 +19’	2.46	3.47	2.52
14:10 +3’	2.68▲	3.47	2.32▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · VSK Arhus 1–1–1 Naestved

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/08/26 Denmark Division 2	Naestved	0-2 HT 0-1	VSK Arhus
16/11/25 Denmark Division 2	Naestved	2-2 HT 0-2	VSK Arhus
30/08/25 Denmark Division 2	VSK Arhus	1-3 HT 1-2	Naestved

Standings · Denmark Division 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nykobing	12	7	4	1	30	15	25
2	FC Roskilde	12	5	7	0	24	13	22
3	VSK Arhus	12	5	4	3	17	12	19
4	Naestved	12	4	7	1	17	14	19
5	Middelfart	12	4	6	2	22	16	18
6	B93 Copenhagen	12	5	3	4	20	16	18
7	Skive	12	5	2	5	15	15	17
8	Fremad Amager	12	4	5	3	16	18	17
9	Brabrand	12	3	3	6	13	19	12
10	Hellerup IK	12	3	3	6	10	19	12
11	Thisted FC	12	1	3	8	11	24	6
12	FA 2000	12	1	3	8	11	25	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	VSK Arhus	Naestved
Thisted FC	2-2 D	3-1 W
Nykobing	1-3 L	1-1 D
Brabrand	0-2 L	1-0 W
Skive	1-0 W	2-1 W
Middelfart	1-1 D	2-2 D
B93 Copenhagen	2-2 D	2-1 W
FA 2000	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 2 L	4 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Naestved (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

VSK Arhus

WWDLDDWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Thisted FC Denmark Division 2	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
11/10	Nykobing Denmark Division 2	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
02/10	Brabrand Denmark Division 2	0-1	0-2	7	3	L
26/09	Skive Denmark Division 2	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
19/09	Middelfart Denmark Division 2	0-1	1-1	9	3	D
13/09	B93 Copenhagen Denmark Division 2	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
05/09	FC Roskilde Denmark Division 2	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
29/08	FA 2000 Denmark Division 2	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
23/08	Naestved Denmark Division 2	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
15/08	Thisted FC Denmark Division 2	3-0	3-1	–	–	W

Naestved

WLWDWDDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	B93 Copenhagen Denmark Division 2	2-0	2-1	3	6	W
10/10	FA 2000 Denmark Division 2	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
02/10	Nykobing Denmark Division 2	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
27/09	Middelfart Denmark Division 2	0-0	2-2	2	2	D
18/09	Fremad Amager Denmark Division 2	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
13/09	Thisted FC Denmark Division 2	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
04/09	B93 Copenhagen Denmark Division 2	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
30/08	Skive Denmark Division 2	1-0	2-1	1	2	W
23/08	VSK Arhus Denmark Division 2	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
14/08	Brabrand Denmark Division 2	1-0	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in VSK Arhus vs Naestved?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Naestved win (40%). Probabilities: VSK Arhus 32%, draw 28%, Naestved 40%.

How many goals are expected in VSK Arhus vs Naestved?

The model expects 2.42 goals (VSK Arhus 1.13 · Naestved 1.29), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in VSK Arhus vs Naestved?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.