Football · Denmark Division 2 · 31/10, 18:00

Prediction: Naestved vs FC Roskilde

Team pages: Naestved · FC Roskilde

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Naestved1.41

FC Roskilde1.39

1X2

37% 27% 36%

Naestved Draw FC Roskilde

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Naestved 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

LWDWDDDDWD

FC Roskilde 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

DDWDWDWWDW

Head-to-head

Naestved 4–2–0 FC Roskilde (6 last)

FC Roskilde2-2Naestved
FC Roskilde0-1Naestved
Naestved0-0FC Roskilde
FC Roskilde2-3Naestved
Naestved1-0FC Roskilde
FC Roskilde1-2Naestved

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Naestved 1542 · FC Roskilde 1559

	Naestved	Draw	FC Roskilde
Our model	37%	28%	36%
Market	38%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Naestved: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Naestved	FC Roskilde
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.3	2.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3	3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.50

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 23:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.40▼	Bet365 2.40
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.38 → 2.45▲	Pinn 2.76 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:14 +6’	2.45	3.50	2.38
18:43 +13’	2.05▼	3.60▲	2.90▲
21:04 +5’	2.10▲	3.60	2.80▼
23:35 +10’	2.40▲	3.50▼	2.45▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:56 +23’	2.54	3.36	2.54
18:38 +18’	2.43▼	3.38▲	2.65▲
13:17 +29’	2.32▼	3.39▲	2.78▲
08:21 +12’	2.31▼	3.44▲	2.76▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Naestved 4–2–0 FC Roskilde

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
31/07/26 Denmark Division 2	FC Roskilde	2-2 HT 2-1	Naestved
16/05/26 Denmark Division 2	FC Roskilde	0-1 HT 0-0	Naestved
17/04/26 Denmark Division 2	Naestved	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Roskilde
02/04/26 Denmark Division 2	FC Roskilde	2-3 HT 1-0	Naestved
01/08/25 Denmark Division 2	Naestved	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Roskilde
18/02/24 Europe Friendlies	FC Roskilde	1-2 HT 1-1	Naestved

Standings · Denmark Division 2

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nykobing	14	9	4	1	37	16	31
2	FC Roskilde	13	6	7	0	28	13	25
3	Skive	14	6	3	5	22	19	21
4	Naestved	13	4	8	1	19	16	20
5	VSK Arhus	14	5	5	4	20	18	20
6	Middelfart	13	4	7	2	25	19	19
7	B93 Copenhagen	13	5	3	5	22	19	18
8	Fremad Amager	13	4	5	4	16	22	17
9	Brabrand	13	4	3	6	16	21	15
10	Hellerup IK	14	4	3	7	13	23	15
11	FA 2000	13	1	3	9	11	27	6
11	Thisted FC	13	1	3	9	11	27	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Naestved	FC Roskilde
VSK Arhus	2-2 D	1-0 W
FA 2000	1-1 D	5-1 W
Nykobing	1-1 D	2-2 D
Middelfart	2-2 D	3-3 D
Fremad Amager	1-1 D	4-0 W
Thisted FC	3-1 W	2-0 W
Skive	2-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 5 D 0 L	5 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Roskilde (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Naestved

LWDWDDDDWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	VSK Arhus Denmark Division 2	0-1	2-2	4	6	D
16/10	B93 Copenhagen Denmark Division 2	2-0	2-1	3	6	W
10/10	FA 2000 Denmark Division 2	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
02/10	Nykobing Denmark Division 2	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
27/09	Middelfart Denmark Division 2	0-0	2-2	2	2	D
18/09	Fremad Amager Denmark Division 2	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
13/09	Thisted FC Denmark Division 2	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
04/09	B93 Copenhagen Denmark Division 2	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
30/08	Skive Denmark Division 2	1-0	2-1	1	2	W
23/08	VSK Arhus Denmark Division 2	0-1	0-2	–	–	L

FC Roskilde

DDWDWDWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Fremad Amager Denmark Division 2	1-0	4-0	1	6	W
17/10	Middelfart Denmark Division 2	0-0	3-3	9	2	D
10/10	Skive Denmark Division 2	1-0	3-0	1	4	W
04/10	Thisted FC Denmark Division 2	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
25/09	Hellerup IK Denmark Division 2	0-0	1-1	8	6	D
18/09	FA 2000 Denmark Division 2	2-0	5-1	5	3	W
13/09	Brabrand Denmark Division 2	1-1	1-1	2	8	D
05/09	VSK Arhus Denmark Division 2	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
28/08	Nykobing Denmark Division 2	0-1	2-2	10	6	D
21/08	Fremad Amager Denmark Division 2	0-1	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Naestved vs FC Roskilde?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Naestved win (37%). Probabilities: Naestved 37%, draw 27%, FC Roskilde 36%.

How many goals are expected in Naestved vs FC Roskilde?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Naestved 1.41 · FC Roskilde 1.39), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Naestved vs FC Roskilde?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.