Football · Spain Primera Women · 18/10, 18:00

Prediction: Atletico Madrid (W) vs Madrid CFF (W)

Team pages: Atletico Madrid (W) · Madrid CFF (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

Atletico Madrid (W)2.11

Madrid CFF (W)1

1X2

62% 22% 16%

Atletico Madrid (W) Draw Madrid CFF (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Madrid (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLLWLWLW

Madrid CFF (W) 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWWLWD

Head-to-head

Atletico Madrid (W) 3–3–0 Madrid CFF (W) (6 last)

Atletico Madrid (W)0-0Madrid CFF (W)
Madrid CFF (W)1-1Atletico Madrid (W)
Madrid CFF (W)0-3Atletico Madrid (W)
Atletico Madrid (W)4-0Madrid CFF (W)
Atletico Madrid (W)1-1Madrid CFF (W)
Madrid CFF (W)1-4Atletico Madrid (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Madrid (W) 1495 · Madrid CFF (W) 1525

	Atletico Madrid (W)	Draw	Madrid CFF (W)
Our model	62%	22%	16%
Market	62%	21%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Atletico Madrid (W): 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Madrid (W)	Madrid CFF (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.6	1.7 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.4	1.9 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.6	3.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.20

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 06:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.44▼	Bet365 1.44
X	4.10 → 4.20▲	Pinn 4.45
2	5.25 → 5.50▲	Pinn 5.90 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:39 +8’	1.48	4.10	5.25
20:16 +5’	1.48	4.10	5.00▼
06:06 +7’	1.44▼	4.20▲	5.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:10 +10’	1.43	4.45	5.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Madrid (W) 3–3–0 Madrid CFF (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Spain Primera Women	Atletico Madrid (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Madrid CFF (W)
21/09/25 Spain Primera Women	Madrid CFF (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Madrid (W)
02/03/25 Spain Primera Women	Madrid CFF (W)	0-3 HT 0-3	Atletico Madrid (W)
27/09/24 Spain Primera Women	Atletico Madrid (W)	4-0 HT 1-0	Madrid CFF (W)
11/02/24 Spain Primera Women	Atletico Madrid (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	Madrid CFF (W)
19/11/23 Spain Primera Women	Madrid CFF (W)	1-4 HT 1-2	Atletico Madrid (W)

Standings · Spain Primera Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona (W)	6	6	0	0	28	2	18
2	Real Madrid (W)	7	5	1	1	16	14	16
3	Athletic Bilbao (W)	7	4	2	1	12	8	14
4	Madrid CFF (W)	6	4	1	1	11	9	13
5	Eibar (W)	6	3	2	1	4	4	11
6	Tenerife (W)	7	3	2	2	10	11	11
7	Granada (W)	7	3	1	3	8	11	10
8	Atletico Madrid (W)	6	3	0	3	10	11	9
9	Espanyol (W)	7	2	2	3	10	9	8
10	FC Badalona (W)	7	2	2	3	9	12	8
11	Sevilla (W)	6	2	1	3	7	10	7
12	Logrono United (W)	7	2	0	5	7	10	6
13	CD Alaves (W)	6	2	0	4	3	9	6
14	Deportivo A Coruna (W)	6	1	2	3	5	6	5
15	Real Sociedad (W)	6	1	2	3	7	11	5
16	Valencia (W)	7	0	0	7	4	14	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Madrid (W)	Madrid CFF (W)
Athletic Bilbao (W)	2-3 L	2-2 D
Logrono United (W)	1-0 W	0-3 L
Barcelona (W)	2-4 L	0-4 L
CD Alaves (W)	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Madrid (W) (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Madrid (W)

WLDLLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Deportivo A Coruna (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	2-1	7	0	W
27/09	Athletic Bilbao (W) Spain Primera Women	1-2	2-3	5	7	L
19/09	Logrono United (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
12/09	Barcelona (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	2-4	2	1	L
06/09	CD Alaves (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
30/08	Real Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	2-3	2-3	5	4	L
31/05	Real Sociedad (W) Spain Primera Women	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
26/05	Tenerife (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
10/05	Real Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	0-1	0-1	0	5	L
03/05	Eibar (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	4-0	6	1	W

Madrid CFF (W)

LWWLWWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Athletic Bilbao (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	2-2	4	6	D
26/09	CD Alaves (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	1-0	1	7	W
19/09	Espanyol (W) Spain Primera Women	1-3	1-5	5	2	L
12/09	Sevilla (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
05/09	Valencia (W) Spain Primera Women	2-0	3-1	5	3	W
29/08	Granada (W) Spain Primera Women	2-0	3-1	3	2	W
31/05	Barcelona (W) Spain Primera Women	0-2	0-4	3	0	L
26/05	Granada (W) Spain Primera Women	0-2	4-3	6	4	W
11/05	Sevilla (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
02/05	Logrono United (W) Spain Primera Women	0-1	0-3	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Madrid (W) vs Madrid CFF (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Madrid (W) win (62%). Probabilities: Atletico Madrid (W) 62%, draw 22%, Madrid CFF (W) 16%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Madrid (W) vs Madrid CFF (W)?

The model expects 3.11 goals (Atletico Madrid (W) 2.11 · Madrid CFF (W) 1), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid (W) vs Madrid CFF (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.