Football · Spain Primera Women · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Real Madrid (W) vs Tenerife (W)

Team pages: Real Madrid (W) · Tenerife (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

Real Madrid (W)2.22

Tenerife (W)0.93

1X2

67% 19% 14%

Real Madrid (W) Draw Tenerife (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Madrid (W) 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWWWLW

Tenerife (W) 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLDDLWWW

Head-to-head

Real Madrid (W) 3–3–0 Tenerife (W) (6 last)

Real Madrid (W)2-0Tenerife (W)
Tenerife (W)0-0Real Madrid (W)
Real Madrid (W)1-1Tenerife (W)
Tenerife (W)1-4Real Madrid (W)
Tenerife (W)1-1Real Madrid (W)
Real Madrid (W)2-1Tenerife (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Madrid (W) 1588 · Tenerife (W) 1524

	Real Madrid (W)	Draw	Tenerife (W)
Our model	66%	21%	14%
Market	67%	18%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Madrid (W) (rating 1588 vs 1524).
H2H favours Real Madrid (W): 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Madrid (W)	Tenerife (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.4	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 6.8	1.5 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.98

2 (+1.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 07:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.33▼	Pinn 1.41 ★
X	4.75 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:17 +4’	1.36	4.75	6.00
17:06 +11’	1.48▲	4.50▼	4.75▼
21:08 +41’	1.36▼	5.00▲	6.00▲
23:03 +13’	1.42▲	4.50▼	5.25▼
06:58 +12’	1.33▼	5.00▲	6.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:13 +5’	1.42	4.40	5.44
16:23 +55’	1.44▲	4.54▲	5.67▲
23:35 +33’	1.41▼	4.64▲	5.93▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Madrid (W) 3–3–0 Tenerife (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Spain Primera Women	Real Madrid (W)	2-0 HT 0-0	Tenerife (W)
28/09/25 Spain Primera Women	Tenerife (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Real Madrid (W)
11/05/25 Spain Primera Women	Real Madrid (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Tenerife (W)
29/09/24 Spain Primera Women	Tenerife (W)	1-4 HT 1-3	Real Madrid (W)
17/08/24 Women’s Friendly	Tenerife (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Real Madrid (W)
18/02/24 Spain Primera Women	Real Madrid (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	Tenerife (W)

Standings · Spain Primera Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona (W)	7	6	0	1	29	4	18
2	Real Madrid (W)	7	5	1	1	16	14	16
3	Athletic Bilbao (W)	7	4	2	1	12	8	14
4	Madrid CFF (W)	7	4	1	2	11	13	13
5	Atletico Madrid (W)	7	4	0	3	14	11	12
6	Tenerife (W)	7	3	2	2	10	11	11
7	Eibar (W)	7	3	2	2	6	7	11
8	Granada (W)	7	3	1	3	8	11	10
9	Espanyol (W)	7	2	2	3	10	9	8
10	Deportivo A Coruna (W)	7	2	2	3	8	8	8
11	FC Badalona (W)	7	2	2	3	9	12	8
11	Real Sociedad (W)	7	2	2	3	9	12	8
13	Sevilla (W)	7	2	2	3	8	11	8
14	CD Alaves (W)	7	2	1	4	4	10	7
15	Logrono United (W)	7	2	0	5	7	10	6
16	Valencia (W)	7	0	0	7	4	14	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Madrid (W)	Tenerife (W)
Barcelona (W)	0-7 L	0-5 L
Real Sociedad (W)	5-3 W	1-1 D
Valencia (W)	3-1 W	2-1 W
Deportivo A Coruna (W)	2-0 W	0-0 D
Atletico Madrid (W)	3-2 W	2-2 D
FC Badalona (W)	4-0 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Real Madrid (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Madrid (W)

WWWWDWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Espanyol (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	3-1	8	4	W
04/10	Barcelona (W) Spain Primera Women	0-5	0-7	1	3	L
26/09	Real Sociedad (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	5-3	6	6	W
19/09	Valencia (W) Spain Primera Women	2-0	3-1	6	2	W
11/09	Deportivo A Coruna (W) Spain Primera Women	2-0	2-0	7	2	W
06/09	Eibar (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	0-0	16	3	D
30/08	Atletico Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	3-2	3-2	4	4	W
31/05	Granada (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	2-0	11	2	W
26/05	FC Badalona (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	4-0	4	1	W
10/05	Atletico Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	1-0	5	5	W

Tenerife (W)

LDWLDDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	FC Badalona (W) Spain Primera Women	3-0	4-0	5	5	W
04/10	Logrono United (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	2-1	5	6	W
27/09	Valencia (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	2-1	1	2	W
20/09	Sevilla (W) Spain Primera Women	1-2	1-3	9	3	L
13/09	Real Sociedad (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
06/09	Deportivo A Coruna (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
30/08	Barcelona (W) Spain Primera Women	0-2	0-5	0	5	L
31/05	Deportivo A Coruna (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
26/05	Atletico Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
10/05	Barcelona (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	1-3	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Madrid (W) vs Tenerife (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Madrid (W) win (67%). Probabilities: Real Madrid (W) 67%, draw 19%, Tenerife (W) 14%.

How many goals are expected in Real Madrid (W) vs Tenerife (W)?

The model expects 3.14 goals (Real Madrid (W) 2.22 · Tenerife (W) 0.93), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Madrid (W) vs Tenerife (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.