Football · Spain Primera Women · 25/10, 17:00

Prediction: Eibar (W) vs Madrid CFF (W)

Team pages: Eibar (W) · Madrid CFF (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Eibar (W)1.25

Madrid CFF (W)1.51

1X2

31% 27% 42%

Eibar (W) Draw Madrid CFF (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Eibar (W) 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWDLWWDL

Madrid CFF (W) 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWLWDL

Head-to-head

Eibar (W) 0–6 Madrid CFF (W) (6 last)

Eibar (W)1-3Madrid CFF (W)
Madrid CFF (W)3-2Eibar (W)
Madrid CFF (W)1-0Eibar (W)
Eibar (W)1-2Madrid CFF (W)
Eibar (W)1-2Madrid CFF (W)
Madrid CFF (W)2-1Eibar (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Eibar (W) 1506 · Madrid CFF (W) 1534

	Eibar (W)	Draw	Madrid CFF (W)
Our model	30%	28%	42%
Market	31%	26%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Madrid CFF (W): 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Eibar (W)	Madrid CFF (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.8	1.7 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.1	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.9	2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.40

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.90▲	Pinn 3.42 ★
X	3.30 → 3.40▲	Bet365 3.40
2	2.25 → 2.10▼	Pinn 2.15

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:30 +7’	2.75	3.30	2.25
23:22 +2’	2.90▲	3.40▲	2.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:23 +16’	3.42	2.99	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Eibar (W) 0–0–6 Madrid CFF (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 Spain Primera Women	Eibar (W)	1-3 HT 1-0	Madrid CFF (W)
21/12/25 Spain Copa De La Reina	Madrid CFF (W)	3-2 HT 1-0	Eibar (W)
06/09/25 Spain Primera Women	Madrid CFF (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Eibar (W)
03/08/25 Women’s Friendly	Eibar (W)	1-2 HT 0-1	Madrid CFF (W)
08/02/25 Spain Primera Women	Eibar (W)	1-2 HT 0-1	Madrid CFF (W)
16/11/24 Spain Primera Women	Madrid CFF (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	Eibar (W)

Standings · Spain Primera Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona (W)	7	6	0	1	29	4	18
2	Real Madrid (W)	7	5	1	1	16	14	16
3	Athletic Bilbao (W)	7	4	2	1	12	8	14
4	Madrid CFF (W)	7	4	1	2	11	13	13
5	Atletico Madrid (W)	7	4	0	3	14	11	12
6	Tenerife (W)	7	3	2	2	10	11	11
7	Eibar (W)	7	3	2	2	6	7	11
8	Granada (W)	7	3	1	3	8	11	10
9	Espanyol (W)	7	2	2	3	10	9	8
10	Deportivo A Coruna (W)	7	2	2	3	8	8	8
11	FC Badalona (W)	7	2	2	3	9	12	8
11	Real Sociedad (W)	7	2	2	3	9	12	8
13	Sevilla (W)	7	2	2	3	8	11	8
14	CD Alaves (W)	7	2	1	4	4	10	7
15	Logrono United (W)	7	2	0	5	7	10	6
16	Valencia (W)	7	0	0	7	4	14	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Eibar (W)	Madrid CFF (W)
Granada (W)	0-0 D	3-1 W
Sevilla (W)	1-0 W	1-0 W
Athletic Bilbao (W)	1-0 W	2-2 D
Espanyol (W)	1-0 W	1-5 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Eibar (W) (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Eibar (W)

WDWWDLWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Deportivo A Coruna (W) Spain Primera Women	0-1	2-3	4	5	L
04/10	Granada (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
27/09	Sevilla (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	1-0	0	4	W
20/09	Athletic Bilbao (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
13/09	FC Badalona (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	1-4	1	0	L
06/09	Real Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	0-0	0	3	D
29/08	Espanyol (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
31/05	Logrono United (W) Spain Primera Women	2-0	2-1	6	4	W
26/05	Sevilla (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
09/05	Alhama CF (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	2-0	6	1	W

Madrid CFF (W)

WWLWWWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Atletico Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	0-4	0-4	7	7	L
03/10	Athletic Bilbao (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	2-2	4	6	D
26/09	CD Alaves (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	1-0	1	7	W
19/09	Espanyol (W) Spain Primera Women	1-3	1-5	5	2	L
12/09	Sevilla (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
05/09	Valencia (W) Spain Primera Women	2-0	3-1	5	3	W
29/08	Granada (W) Spain Primera Women	2-0	3-1	3	2	W
31/05	Barcelona (W) Spain Primera Women	0-2	0-4	3	0	L
26/05	Granada (W) Spain Primera Women	0-2	4-3	6	4	W
11/05	Sevilla (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	2-0	1	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Eibar (W) vs Madrid CFF (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Madrid CFF (W) win (42%). Probabilities: Eibar (W) 31%, draw 27%, Madrid CFF (W) 42%.

How many goals are expected in Eibar (W) vs Madrid CFF (W)?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Eibar (W) 1.25 · Madrid CFF (W) 1.51), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Eibar (W) vs Madrid CFF (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.