Football · Spain Primera Women · 18/10, 12:00
Prediction: Real Sociedad (W) vs Barcelona (W)
Team pages: Real Sociedad (W) · Barcelona (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.68Total
Real Sociedad (W)0.84
Barcelona (W)2.84
1X2
Real Sociedad (W)
Draw
Barcelona (W)
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
0-2 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Real Sociedad (W)
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Barcelona (W)
10-0-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Real Sociedad (W)
1–5
Barcelona (W)
(6 last)
- Barcelona (W)2-1Real Sociedad (W)
- Real Sociedad (W)1-0Barcelona (W)
- Real Sociedad (W)0-6Barcelona (W)
- Barcelona (W)3-1Real Sociedad (W)
- Barcelona (W)8-0Real Sociedad (W)
- Real Sociedad (W)1-7Barcelona (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Real Sociedad (W) 1500 · Barcelona (W) 1684
| Real Sociedad (W) | Draw | Barcelona (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 8% | 14% | 78% |
| Market | 5% | 11% | 84% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.68 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barcelona (W) (rating 1500 vs 1684).
- H2H favours Barcelona (W): 5-0-1.
- High corners: 13.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Real Sociedad (W) | Barcelona (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.4 | 4.2 / 0.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 2.2 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 80/20/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.5 | 4.4 / 8.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.2 | 1.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Sociedad (W) 1–0–5 Barcelona (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/26 Spain Primera Women | Barcelona (W) | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Real Sociedad (W) |
| 02/11/25 Spain Primera Women | Real Sociedad (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Barcelona (W) |
| 05/01/25 Spain Primera Women | Real Sociedad (W) | 0-6 HT 0-3 | Barcelona (W) |
| 13/09/24 Spain Primera Women | Barcelona (W) | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Real Sociedad (W) |
| 18/05/24 Spain Copa De La Reina | Barcelona (W) | 8-0 HT 5-0 | Real Sociedad (W) |
| 10/03/24 Spain Primera Women | Real Sociedad (W) | 1-7 HT 0-4 | Barcelona (W) |
Standings · Spain Primera Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona (W) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 2 | 18 |
| 2 | Real Madrid (W) | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 14 | 16 |
| 3 | Athletic Bilbao (W) | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Madrid CFF (W) | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 13 |
| 5 | Eibar (W) | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Tenerife (W) | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 11 |
| 7 | Granada (W) | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 10 |
| 8 | Atletico Madrid (W) | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 9 |
| 9 | Espanyol (W) | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| 10 | FC Badalona (W) | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 8 |
| 11 | Sevilla (W) | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 7 |
| 12 | Logrono United (W) | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 6 |
| 13 | CD Alaves (W) | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 6 |
| 14 | Deportivo A Coruna (W) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| 15 | Real Sociedad (W) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 5 |
| 16 | Valencia (W) | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Real Sociedad (W) | Barcelona (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid (W) | 3-5 L | 7-0 W |
| Tenerife (W) | 1-1 D | 5-0 W |
| Atletico Madrid (W) | 2-0 W | 4-2 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 3 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Barcelona (W) (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Real Sociedad (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Valencia (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 26/09 | Real Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-1 | 3-5 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 19/09 | FC Badalona (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 13/09 | Tenerife (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 07/09 | Granada (W) Spain Primera Women |
2-2 | 2-3 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 29/08 | EDF Logrono (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 31/05 | Atletico Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 27/05 | Barcelona (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Granada (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Deportivo A Coruna (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
Barcelona (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Real Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women |
5-0 | 7-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 26/09 | Logrono United (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 18/09 | CD Alaves (W) Spain Primera Women |
3-0 | 6-0 | 12 | 1 | W |
| 12/09 | Atletico Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-1 | 4-2 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 05/09 | Sevilla (W) Spain Primera Women |
3-0 | 4-0 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 30/08 | Tenerife (W) Spain Primera Women |
2-0 | 5-0 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Madrid CFF (W) Spain Primera Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 27/05 | Real Sociedad (W) Spain Primera Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 10/05 | Tenerife (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 06/05 | Levante UD (W) Spain Primera Women |
2-0 | 5-0 | 11 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Real Sociedad (W) vs Barcelona (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Barcelona (W) win (81%). Probabilities: Real Sociedad (W) 6%, draw 13%, Barcelona (W) 81%.
How many goals are expected in Real Sociedad (W) vs Barcelona (W)?
The model expects 3.68 goals (Real Sociedad (W) 0.84 · Barcelona (W) 2.84), with a 55% chance of under 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Real Sociedad (W) vs Barcelona (W)?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.