Football · Netherlands Eredivisie Women · 06/09, 16:45

Prediction: FC Twente (W) vs Heerenveen (W)

Team pages: FC Twente (W) · Heerenveen (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.63Total

FC Twente (W)2.81

Heerenveen (W)0.81

1X2

81% 13% 7%

FC Twente (W) Draw Heerenveen (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Twente (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLLWWLWW

Heerenveen (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WDWLLWLLLL

Head-to-head

FC Twente (W) 6–0 Heerenveen (W) (6 last)

FC Twente (W)5-1Heerenveen (W)
Heerenveen (W)1-3FC Twente (W)
FC Twente (W)3-0Heerenveen (W)
Heerenveen (W)0-4FC Twente (W)
Heerenveen (W)0-2FC Twente (W)
FC Twente (W)3-2Heerenveen (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Twente (W) 1553 · Heerenveen (W) 1461

	FC Twente (W)	Draw	Heerenveen (W)
Our model	78%	15%	7%
Market	83%	11%	6%

Estimated total (ours) 3.63 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Twente (W) (rating 1553 vs 1461).
H2H favours FC Twente (W): 6-0-0.
High corners: 11 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Twente (W)	Heerenveen (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.1	1.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 7.7	1.7 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.1	0.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.13

X8.50

215.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)2.00

2 (+2.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.13 → 1.13	Bet365 1.13
X	8.50 → 8.50	Pinn 8.83 ★
2	15.00 → 15.00	Bet365 15.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3% Pinnacle margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
19:58 +2’	1.13	8.50	15.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:57 +3’	1.10	8.85	14.59
21:23 +68’	1.11▲	8.83▼	14.56▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Twente (W) 6–0–0 Heerenveen (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	FC Twente (W)	5-1 HT 3-1	Heerenveen (W)
06/09/25 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	Heerenveen (W)	1-3 HT 1-3	FC Twente (W)
23/03/25 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	FC Twente (W)	3-0 HT 0-0	Heerenveen (W)
07/12/24 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	Heerenveen (W)	0-4 HT 0-1	FC Twente (W)
31/01/24 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	Heerenveen (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	FC Twente (W)
17/12/23 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	FC Twente (W)	3-2 HT 2-2	Heerenveen (W)

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Twente (W)	2	2	0	0	9	2	6
2	VV Alkmaar (W)	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
3	Ajax (W)	2	2	0	0	2	0	6
4	PSV (W)	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
5	Feyenoord (W)	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
6	De Graafschap (W)	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
7	FC Utrecht (W)	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
8	Heerenveen (W)	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
9	PEC Zwolle (W)	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
10	ADO Den Haag (W)	2	0	0	2	2	9	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Twente (W)	Heerenveen (W)
De Graafschap (W)	2-1 W	0-1 L
PSV (W)	1-2 L	0-1 L
NAC (W)	3-0 W	5-0 W
PEC Zwolle (W)	3-2 W	1-1 D
FC Utrecht (W)	0-2 L	1-5 L
HERA United (W)	3-0 W	1-2 L
Feyenoord (W)	0-2 L	1-2 L
Ajax (W)	0-0 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: FC Twente (W) (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Twente (W)

DLWLLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	ADO Den Haag (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	3-0	7-1	9	6	W
16/08	De Graafschap (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	2-0	2-1	3	1	W
22/05	PSV (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
08/05	NAC (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	3-0	19	0	W
03/05	PEC Zwolle (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	3-2	5	1	W
26/04	FC Utrecht (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
05/04	ADO Den Haag (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
29/03	HERA United (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	3-0	8	0	W
11/03	Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	0-2	7	1	L
22/02	Ajax (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	0-0	6	5	D

Heerenveen (W)

WDWLLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	De Graafschap (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	0-1	3	0	L
16/08	Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	1-2	5	2	L
22/05	Ajax (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	1-3	1	1	L
08/05	FC Utrecht (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-3	1-5	3	0	L
03/05	VV Alkmaar (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-1	5-1	2	2	W
26/04	PSV (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	0-1	1	1	L
05/04	HERA United (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	1-2	6	0	L
29/03	Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-1	2-1	1	0	W
15/03	PEC Zwolle (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
22/02	NAC (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	5-0	9	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Twente (W) vs Heerenveen (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Twente (W) win (81%). Probabilities: FC Twente (W) 81%, draw 13%, Heerenveen (W) 7%.

How many goals are expected in FC Twente (W) vs Heerenveen (W)?

The model expects 3.63 goals (FC Twente (W) 2.81 · Heerenveen (W) 0.81), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Twente (W) vs Heerenveen (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.