Football · Netherlands Eredivisie Women · 06/09, 16:45

Prediction: VV Alkmaar (W) vs FC Utrecht (W)

Team pages: VV Alkmaar (W) · FC Utrecht (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

VV Alkmaar (W)1.82

FC Utrecht (W)1.41

1X2

46% 25% 29%

VV Alkmaar (W) Draw FC Utrecht (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

VV Alkmaar (W) 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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FC Utrecht (W) 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

VV Alkmaar (W) 2–4–0 FC Utrecht (W) (6 last)

VV Alkmaar (W)1-1FC Utrecht (W)
FC Utrecht (W)3-3VV Alkmaar (W)
FC Utrecht (W)3-3VV Alkmaar (W)
FC Utrecht (W)1-2VV Alkmaar (W)
VV Alkmaar (W)2-1FC Utrecht (W)
VV Alkmaar (W)1-1FC Utrecht (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · VV Alkmaar (W) 1508 · FC Utrecht (W) 1523

	VV Alkmaar (W)	Draw	FC Utrecht (W)
Our model	46%	25%	29%
Market	46%	25%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours VV Alkmaar (W): 2-4-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	VV Alkmaar (W)	FC Utrecht (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.8	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.3	1.8 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0	1.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.60

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
19:58 +2’	1.95	3.60	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · VV Alkmaar (W) 2–4–0 FC Utrecht (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	VV Alkmaar (W)	1-1 HT 1-0	FC Utrecht (W)
16/11/25 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	FC Utrecht (W)	3-3 HT 1-3	VV Alkmaar (W)
11/07/25 Women’s Friendly	FC Utrecht (W)	3-3 HT 0-1	VV Alkmaar (W)
22/03/25 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	FC Utrecht (W)	1-2 HT 1-0	VV Alkmaar (W)
14/02/25 Netherlands Cup Women	VV Alkmaar (W)	2-1 HT 1-1	FC Utrecht (W)
14/12/24 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	VV Alkmaar (W)	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Utrecht (W)

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Twente (W)	2	2	0	0	9	2	6
2	VV Alkmaar (W)	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
3	Ajax (W)	2	2	0	0	2	0	6
4	PSV (W)	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
5	Feyenoord (W)	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
6	De Graafschap (W)	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
7	FC Utrecht (W)	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
8	Heerenveen (W)	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
9	PEC Zwolle (W)	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
10	ADO Den Haag (W)	2	0	0	2	2	9	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	VV Alkmaar (W)	FC Utrecht (W)
Feyenoord (W)	2-1 W	0-3 L
Excelsior (W)	1-0 W	2-0 W
Ajax (W)	1-3 L	0-1 L
Heerenveen (W)	1-5 L	5-1 W
HERA United (W)	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Utrecht (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

VV Alkmaar (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	2-0	2-1	4	3	W
16/08	ADO Den Haag (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	2-1	2	0	W
22/05	Excelsior (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
08/05	Ajax (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	1-3	1	1	L
03/05	Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-1	1-5	15	2	L
26/04	ADO Den Haag (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
05/04	Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	2-1	3-3	5	3	D
29/03	FC Utrecht (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	1-1	4	0	D
22/03	HERA United (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
15/03	NAC (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	2-1	3-2	7	1	W

FC Utrecht (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	PSV (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	1-1	2	2	D
16/08	Ajax (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
22/05	HERA United (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	2-1	4	2	W
08/05	Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	3-0	5-1	5	0	W
03/05	Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
26/04	FC Twente (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
05/04	PEC Zwolle (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	3-0	5	0	W
29/03	VV Alkmaar (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	1-1	2	0	D
21/03	Excelsior (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
15/03	Ajax (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	0-2	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in VV Alkmaar (W) vs FC Utrecht (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a VV Alkmaar (W) win (46%). Probabilities: VV Alkmaar (W) 46%, draw 25%, FC Utrecht (W) 29%.

How many goals are expected in VV Alkmaar (W) vs FC Utrecht (W)?

The model expects 3.23 goals (VV Alkmaar (W) 1.82 · FC Utrecht (W) 1.41), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in VV Alkmaar (W) vs FC Utrecht (W)?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.