Football · Netherlands Eredivisie Women · 13/09, 16:45
Prediction: Heerenveen (W) vs Ajax (W)
Team pages: Heerenveen (W) · Ajax (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.15Total
Heerenveen (W)0.67
Ajax (W)2.49
1X2
Heerenveen (W)
Draw
Ajax (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
0-2 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Heerenveen (W)
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Ajax (W)
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Heerenveen (W)
1–5
Ajax (W)
(6 last)
- Heerenveen (W)1-3Ajax (W)
- Ajax (W)4-1Heerenveen (W)
- Ajax (W)5-1Heerenveen (W)
- Heerenveen (W)1-4Ajax (W)
- Heerenveen (W)2-1Ajax (W)
- Ajax (W)5-1Heerenveen (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Heerenveen (W) 1449 · Ajax (W) 1585
| Heerenveen (W) | Draw | Ajax (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 7% | 16% | 76% |
| Market | 8% | 14% | 78% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.15 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ajax (W) (rating 1449 vs 1585).
- H2H favours Ajax (W): 5-0-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Heerenveen (W) | Ajax (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 2.2 | 1.6 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.9 | 0.3 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 2.8 | 3.5 / 7.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 0.9 / 0.1 | 1.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Heerenveen (W) 1–0–5 Ajax (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05/26 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | Heerenveen (W) | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Ajax (W) |
| 04/10/25 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | Ajax (W) | 4-1 HT 3-0 | Heerenveen (W) |
| 09/03/25 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | Ajax (W) | 5-1 HT 3-0 | Heerenveen (W) |
| 15/12/24 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | Heerenveen (W) | 1-4 HT 1-1 | Ajax (W) |
| 31/03/24 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | Heerenveen (W) | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Ajax (W) |
| 14/02/24 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | Ajax (W) | 5-1 HT 3-0 | Heerenveen (W) |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Twente (W) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | VV Alkmaar (W) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | Ajax (W) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | PSV (W) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | De Graafschap (W) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | ADO Den Haag (W) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 3 |
| 7 | Feyenoord (W) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 3 |
| 8 | FC Utrecht (W) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 9 | PEC Zwolle (W) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| 10 | Heerenveen (W) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Heerenveen (W) | Ajax (W) |
|---|---|---|
| De Graafschap (W) | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Feyenoord (W) | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| FC Utrecht (W) | 1-5 L | 1-0 W |
| VV Alkmaar (W) | 5-1 W | 3-1 W |
| PSV (W) | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| PEC Zwolle (W) | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 4 L | 4 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Ajax (W) (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Heerenveen (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | FC Twente (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-3 | 1-5 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | De Graafschap (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 16/08 | Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 22/05 | Ajax (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 08/05 | FC Utrecht (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-3 | 1-5 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 03/05 | VV Alkmaar (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-1 | 5-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | PSV (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 05/04 | HERA United (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 29/03 | Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 15/03 | PEC Zwolle (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
Ajax (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | De Graafschap (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 22/08 | PEC Zwolle (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 16/08 | FC Utrecht (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 22/05 | Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 08/05 | VV Alkmaar (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Excelsior (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 05/04 | PSV (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 29/03 | PEC Zwolle (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 22/03 | NAC (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-1 | 3-2 | 21 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Heerenveen (W) vs Ajax (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Ajax (W) win (77%). Probabilities: Heerenveen (W) 8%, draw 15%, Ajax (W) 77%.
How many goals are expected in Heerenveen (W) vs Ajax (W)?
The model expects 3.15 goals (Heerenveen (W) 0.67 · Ajax (W) 2.49), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen (W) vs Ajax (W)?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.