Football · Netherlands Eredivisie Women · 13/09, 16:45
Prediction: VV Alkmaar (W) vs PSV (W)
Team pages: VV Alkmaar (W) · PSV (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.06Total
VV Alkmaar (W)0.85
PSV (W)2.21
1X2
VV Alkmaar (W)
Draw
PSV (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
0-2 11%
Recent form · 10 last
VV Alkmaar (W)
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
PSV (W)
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
VV Alkmaar (W)
0–6
PSV (W)
(6 last)
- VV Alkmaar (W)1-2PSV (W)
- VV Alkmaar (W)2-3PSV (W)
- PSV (W)2-0VV Alkmaar (W)
- VV Alkmaar (W)0-1PSV (W)
- VV Alkmaar (W)1-2PSV (W)
- PSV (W)4-1VV Alkmaar (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · VV Alkmaar (W) 1494 · PSV (W) 1660
| VV Alkmaar (W) | Draw | PSV (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 12% | 20% | 67% |
| Market | 13% | 19% | 68% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PSV (W) (rating 1494 vs 1660).
- H2H favours PSV (W): 6-0-0.
- High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| VV Alkmaar (W) | PSV (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.6 | 2.7 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.3 | 1.3 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/20/10% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.7 | 2.5 / 6.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0 | 1.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · VV Alkmaar (W) 0–0–6 PSV (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/26 Netherlands Cup Women | VV Alkmaar (W) | 1-2 HT 0-1 | PSV (W) |
| 22/02/26 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | VV Alkmaar (W) | 2-3 HT 0-1 | PSV (W) |
| 02/11/25 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | PSV (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | VV Alkmaar (W) |
| 29/03/25 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | VV Alkmaar (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | PSV (W) |
| 16/03/25 Netherlands Cup Women | VV Alkmaar (W) | 1-2 HT 1-0 | PSV (W) |
| 17/11/24 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | PSV (W) | 4-1 HT 2-1 | VV Alkmaar (W) |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Twente (W) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | VV Alkmaar (W) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | Ajax (W) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | PSV (W) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | De Graafschap (W) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | ADO Den Haag (W) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 3 |
| 7 | Feyenoord (W) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 3 |
| 8 | FC Utrecht (W) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 9 | PEC Zwolle (W) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| 10 | Heerenveen (W) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | VV Alkmaar (W) | PSV (W) |
|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht (W) | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Feyenoord (W) | 2-1 W | 6-0 W |
| ADO Den Haag (W) | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Excelsior (W) | 1-0 W | 6-0 W |
| Ajax (W) | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Heerenveen (W) | 1-5 L | 1-0 W |
| HERA United (W) | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 2 L | 5 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: PSV (W) (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
VV Alkmaar (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | FC Utrecht (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 16/08 | ADO Den Haag (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 22/05 | Excelsior (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 08/05 | Ajax (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-1 | 1-5 | 15 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | ADO Den Haag (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 05/04 | Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
2-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 29/03 | FC Utrecht (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 22/03 | HERA United (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
PSV (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
2-0 | 6-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 22/08 | FC Utrecht (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 16/08 | PEC Zwolle (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 22/05 | FC Twente (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 08/05 | ADO Den Haag (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 03/05 | HERA United (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 26/04 | Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 05/04 | Ajax (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 29/03 | NAC (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
3-0 | 4-1 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 12/03 | Excelsior (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
3-0 | 6-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in VV Alkmaar (W) vs PSV (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an PSV (W) win (68%). Probabilities: VV Alkmaar (W) 13%, draw 20%, PSV (W) 68%.
How many goals are expected in VV Alkmaar (W) vs PSV (W)?
The model expects 3.06 goals (VV Alkmaar (W) 0.85 · PSV (W) 2.21), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in VV Alkmaar (W) vs PSV (W)?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.