Football · Netherlands Eredivisie Women · 04/10, 16:45

Prediction: Feyenoord (W) vs Ajax (W)

Team pages: Feyenoord (W) · Ajax (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

Feyenoord (W)1.05

Ajax (W)2.21

1X2

16% 21% 63%

Feyenoord (W) Draw Ajax (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Feyenoord (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Ajax (W) 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Feyenoord (W) 0–3–3 Ajax (W) (6 last)

Ajax (W)3-0Feyenoord (W)
Ajax (W)0-0Feyenoord (W)
Feyenoord (W)0-1Ajax (W)
Ajax (W)2-0Feyenoord (W)
Feyenoord (W)0-0Ajax (W)
Ajax (W)1-1Feyenoord (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Feyenoord (W) 1490 · Ajax (W) 1563

	Feyenoord (W)	Draw	Ajax (W)
Our model	16%	21%	63%
Market	16%	21%	63%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ajax (W) (rating 1490 vs 1563).
H2H favours Ajax (W): 3-3-0.
High corners: 14.9 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Feyenoord (W)	Ajax (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	2.4 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 7.2	4 / 7.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	1.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

15.50

X4.33

21.42

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.88

2 (-1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.50
2	1.42 → 1.42	Pinn 1.48 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:37 +22’	5.50	4.33	1.42

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:12 +47’	5.13	4.50	1.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Feyenoord (W) 0–3–3 Ajax (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 Netherlands Cup Women	Ajax (W)	3-0 HT 0-0	Feyenoord (W)
26/04/26 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	Ajax (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Feyenoord (W)
21/09/25 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	Feyenoord (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Ajax (W)
08/02/25 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	Ajax (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Feyenoord (W)
20/10/24 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	Feyenoord (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Ajax (W)
16/04/24 Netherlands Cup Women	Ajax (W)	1-1 HT 1-0	Feyenoord (W)

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Twente (W)	6	6	0	0	27	3	18
2	Ajax (W)	6	5	0	1	16	5	15
3	VV Alkmaar (W)	6	4	0	2	9	13	12
4	PSV (W)	6	3	1	2	14	8	10
5	Heerenveen (W)	6	2	1	3	9	11	7
6	ADO Den Haag (W)	6	2	1	3	12	22	7
7	PEC Zwolle (W)	6	2	0	4	11	15	6
8	De Graafschap (W)	6	2	0	4	7	12	6
9	Feyenoord (W)	6	2	0	4	8	16	6
10	FC Utrecht (W)	6	0	1	5	4	12	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Feyenoord (W)	Ajax (W)
PEC Zwolle (W)	2-3 L	1-0 W
FC Utrecht (W)	3-0 W	1-0 W
VV Alkmaar (W)	1-2 L	5-1 W
Heerenveen (W)	2-1 W	1-3 L
Excelsior (W)	3-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Feyenoord (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Feyenoord (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	PEC Zwolle (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	2-2	2-3	5	6	L
19/09	FC Utrecht (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	3-0	5	0	W
13/09	FC Twente (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-2	0-4	3	5	L
06/09	PSV (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-2	0-6	0	0	L
22/08	VV Alkmaar (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-2	1-2	7	3	L
16/08	Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	2-1	16	2	W
22/05	NAC (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	2-0	3-0	15	1	W
08/05	Excelsior (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
03/05	FC Utrecht (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	3-0	8	2	W
26/04	Ajax (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	0-0	7	3	D

Ajax (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	ADO Den Haag (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	3-1	7-1	8	1	W
19/09	VV Alkmaar (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	3-0	5-1	8	2	W
13/09	Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	1-3	11	1	L
06/09	De Graafschap (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	1-0	6	1	W
22/08	PEC Zwolle (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
16/08	FC Utrecht (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
22/05	Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	3-1	8	1	W
08/05	VV Alkmaar (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	3-1	9	1	W
03/05	Excelsior (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	2-0	12	2	W
26/04	Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	0-0	5	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Feyenoord (W) vs Ajax (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ajax (W) win (63%). Probabilities: Feyenoord (W) 16%, draw 21%, Ajax (W) 63%.

How many goals are expected in Feyenoord (W) vs Ajax (W)?

The model expects 3.26 goals (Feyenoord (W) 1.05 · Ajax (W) 2.21), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Feyenoord (W) vs Ajax (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.