Football · Netherlands Eredivisie Women · 04/10, 16:45

Prediction: ADO Den Haag (W) vs PSV (W)

Team pages: ADO Den Haag (W) · PSV (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.51Total

ADO Den Haag (W)0.82

PSV (W)2.69

1X2

9% 15% 77%

ADO Den Haag (W) Draw PSV (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

0-2 11%

Recent form · 10 last

ADO Den Haag (W) 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWLWLLWWDL

PSV (W) 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDWLLW

Head-to-head

ADO Den Haag (W) 0–2–4 PSV (W) (6 last)

PSV (W)2-0ADO Den Haag (W)
ADO Den Haag (W)0-2PSV (W)
ADO Den Haag (W)1-1PSV (W)
PSV (W)2-0ADO Den Haag (W)
PSV (W)3-1ADO Den Haag (W)
ADO Den Haag (W)0-0PSV (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ADO Den Haag (W) 1488 · PSV (W) 1582

	ADO Den Haag (W)	Draw	PSV (W)
Our model	8%	16%	76%
Market	9%	14%	77%

Estimated total (ours) 3.51 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PSV (W) (rating 1488 vs 1582).
H2H favours PSV (W): 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ADO Den Haag (W)	PSV (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 2.7	2.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 1.5	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.9	2.7 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	2.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

110.00

X6.50

21.18

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.95

2 (-2)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	10.00 → 10.00	Pinn 16.79 ★
X	6.50 → 6.50	Pinn 8.31
2	1.18 → 1.18	Bet365 1.18

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.1% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:20 +38’	10.00	6.50	1.18

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:47 +71’	16.79	8.31	1.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ADO Den Haag (W) 0–2–4 PSV (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	PSV (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	ADO Den Haag (W)
07/12/25 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	ADO Den Haag (W)	0-2 HT 0-0	PSV (W)
25/01/25 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	ADO Den Haag (W)	1-1 HT 1-0	PSV (W)
10/11/24 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	PSV (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	ADO Den Haag (W)
28/01/24 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	PSV (W)	3-1 HT 3-0	ADO Den Haag (W)
15/09/23 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	ADO Den Haag (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	PSV (W)

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Twente (W)	6	6	0	0	27	3	18
2	Ajax (W)	6	5	0	1	16	5	15
3	VV Alkmaar (W)	6	4	0	2	9	13	12
4	PSV (W)	6	3	1	2	14	8	10
5	Heerenveen (W)	6	2	1	3	9	11	7
6	ADO Den Haag (W)	6	2	1	3	12	22	7
7	PEC Zwolle (W)	6	2	0	4	11	15	6
8	De Graafschap (W)	6	2	0	4	7	12	6
9	Feyenoord (W)	6	2	0	4	8	16	6
10	FC Utrecht (W)	6	0	1	5	4	12	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ADO Den Haag (W)	PSV (W)
Heerenveen (W)	2-2 D	1-0 W
De Graafschap (W)	3-2 W	4-0 W
PEC Zwolle (W)	4-2 W	2-0 W
FC Twente (W)	1-7 L	0-4 L
VV Alkmaar (W)	1-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: PSV (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ADO Den Haag (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Ajax (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-3	1-7	4	1	L
20/09	Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-2	2-2	6	0	D
13/09	De Graafschap (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	2-2	3-2	4	6	W
06/09	PEC Zwolle (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	2-2	4-2	3	2	W
23/08	FC Twente (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-3	1-7	4	6	L
16/08	VV Alkmaar (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	1-2	2	0	L
22/05	PEC Zwolle (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	3-0	3-0	4	2	W
08/05	PSV (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	0-2	0	6	L
03/05	NAC (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-1	4-2	9	2	W
26/04	VV Alkmaar (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	1-1	3	2	D

PSV (W)

WWWWWDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	De Graafschap (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	4-0	10	0	W
19/09	FC Twente (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-2	0-4	4	3	L
13/09	VV Alkmaar (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	1-3	10	2	L
06/09	Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	2-0	6-0	9	0	W
22/08	FC Utrecht (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	1-1	10	2	D
16/08	PEC Zwolle (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	2-0	1	4	W
22/05	FC Twente (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	2-0	2-1	7	3	W
08/05	ADO Den Haag (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	2-0	8	6	W
03/05	HERA United (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	2-0	2-1	4	0	W
26/04	Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	1-0	6	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ADO Den Haag (W) vs PSV (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an PSV (W) win (77%). Probabilities: ADO Den Haag (W) 9%, draw 15%, PSV (W) 77%.

How many goals are expected in ADO Den Haag (W) vs PSV (W)?

The model expects 3.51 goals (ADO Den Haag (W) 0.82 · PSV (W) 2.69), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag (W) vs PSV (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.