Football · Netherlands Eredivisie Women · 04/10, 12:15

Prediction: FC Twente (W) vs FC Utrecht (W)

Team pages: FC Twente (W) · FC Utrecht (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.87Total

FC Twente (W)2.93

FC Utrecht (W)0.93

1X2

85% 10% 6%

FC Twente (W) Draw FC Utrecht (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Twente (W) 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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FC Utrecht (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Twente (W) 3–2–1 FC Utrecht (W) (6 last)

FC Utrecht (W)2-0FC Twente (W)
FC Twente (W)1-1FC Utrecht (W)
FC Utrecht (W)1-3FC Twente (W)
FC Utrecht (W)1-2FC Twente (W)
FC Twente (W)3-1FC Utrecht (W)
FC Twente (W)2-2FC Utrecht (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Twente (W) 1610 · FC Utrecht (W) 1441

	FC Twente (W)	Draw	FC Utrecht (W)
Our model	77%	14%	8%
Market	90%	6%	3%

Estimated total (ours) 3.87 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Twente (W) (rating 1610 vs 1441).
H2H favours FC Twente (W): 3-2-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Twente (W)	FC Utrecht (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	3.4 / 0.9	1.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.5	1.6 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	1.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.04

X15.00

229.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.25)1.90

2 (+3.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.98

Under 4.251.82

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.04 → 1.04	Bet365 1.04
X	15.00 → 15.00	Bet365 15.00
2	29.00 → 29.00	Bet365 29.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.8% Pinnacle margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:08 +6’	1.04	15.00	29.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:33 +87’	1.04	12.67	25.52

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Twente (W) 3–2–1 FC Utrecht (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	FC Utrecht (W)	2-0 HT 0-0	FC Twente (W)
12/10/25 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	FC Twente (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Utrecht (W)
04/07/25 Women’s Friendly	FC Utrecht (W)	1-3 HT 1-1	FC Twente (W)
26/01/25 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	FC Utrecht (W)	1-2 HT 0-0	FC Twente (W)
03/11/24 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	FC Twente (W)	3-1 HT 2-1	FC Utrecht (W)
29/06/24 Women’s Friendly	FC Twente (W)	2-2 HT 1-1	FC Utrecht (W)

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Twente (W)	6	6	0	0	27	3	18
2	Ajax (W)	6	5	0	1	16	5	15
3	VV Alkmaar (W)	6	4	0	2	9	13	12
4	PSV (W)	6	3	1	2	14	8	10
5	Heerenveen (W)	6	2	1	3	9	11	7
6	ADO Den Haag (W)	6	2	1	3	12	22	7
7	PEC Zwolle (W)	6	2	0	4	11	15	6
8	De Graafschap (W)	6	2	0	4	7	12	6
9	Feyenoord (W)	6	2	0	4	8	16	6
10	FC Utrecht (W)	6	0	1	5	4	12	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Twente (W)	FC Utrecht (W)
VV Alkmaar (W)	5-0 W	0-1 L
PSV (W)	4-0 W	1-1 D
Feyenoord (W)	4-0 W	0-3 L
Heerenveen (W)	5-1 W	0-2 L
PEC Zwolle (W)	3-2 W	3-4 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Twente (W) (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Twente (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	VV Alkmaar (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	5-0	5	1	W
19/09	PSV (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	2-0	4-0	1	3	W
13/09	Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	2-0	4-0	2	5	W
06/09	Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	3-0	5-1	9	3	W
23/08	ADO Den Haag (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	3-0	7-1	9	6	W
16/08	De Graafschap (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	2-0	2-1	3	1	W
22/05	PSV (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
08/05	NAC (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	3-0	19	0	W
03/05	PEC Zwolle (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	3-2	5	1	W
26/04	FC Utrecht (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	0-2	6	2	L

FC Utrecht (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-2	0-2	3	1	L
19/09	Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	0-3	1	0	L
13/09	PEC Zwolle (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-3	3-4	7	2	L
06/09	VV Alkmaar (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
22/08	PSV (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	1-1	2	2	D
16/08	Ajax (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
22/05	HERA United (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	2-1	4	2	W
08/05	Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	3-0	5-1	5	0	W
03/05	Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
26/04	FC Twente (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	2-0	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Twente (W) vs FC Utrecht (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Twente (W) win (85%). Probabilities: FC Twente (W) 85%, draw 10%, FC Utrecht (W) 6%.

How many goals are expected in FC Twente (W) vs FC Utrecht (W)?

The model expects 3.87 goals (FC Twente (W) 2.93 · FC Utrecht (W) 0.93), with a 56% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Twente (W) vs FC Utrecht (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.