Football · Netherlands Eredivisie Women · 26/09, 16:30

Prediction: Ajax (W) vs ADO Den Haag (W)

Team pages: Ajax (W) · ADO Den Haag (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.53Total

Ajax (W)2.76

ADO Den Haag (W)0.76

1X2

81% 13% 7%

Ajax (W) Draw ADO Den Haag (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Ajax (W) 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWWWWWLW

ADO Den Haag (W) 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWLLWWD

Head-to-head

Ajax (W) 6–0 ADO Den Haag (W) (6 last)

ADO Den Haag (W)0-3Ajax (W)
Ajax (W)6-0ADO Den Haag (W)
Ajax (W)4-0ADO Den Haag (W)
ADO Den Haag (W)0-2Ajax (W)
ADO Den Haag (W)1-3Ajax (W)
Ajax (W)3-0ADO Den Haag (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ajax (W) 1583 · ADO Den Haag (W) 1506

	Ajax (W)	Draw	ADO Den Haag (W)
Our model	78%	15%	7%
Market	83%	11%	6%

Estimated total (ours) 3.53 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ajax (W) (rating 1583 vs 1506).
H2H favours Ajax (W): 6-0-0.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ajax (W)	ADO Den Haag (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.7	2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	1 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.9	1.7 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.3 / 0.1	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.11

X8.50

215.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.95

2 (+2.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.11 → 1.11	Bet365 1.11
X	8.50 → 8.50	Pinn 8.54
2	15.00 → 15.00	Pinn 15.98 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:57 +20’	1.11	8.50	15.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:40 +65’	1.10	8.54	15.98

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ajax (W) 6–0–0 ADO Den Haag (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/01/26 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	ADO Den Haag (W)	0-3 HT 0-2	Ajax (W)
06/09/25 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	Ajax (W)	6-0 HT 1-0	ADO Den Haag (W)
30/03/25 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	Ajax (W)	4-0 HT 2-0	ADO Den Haag (W)
03/11/24 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	ADO Den Haag (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	Ajax (W)
11/05/24 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	ADO Den Haag (W)	1-3	Ajax (W)
17/12/23 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	Ajax (W)	3-0 HT 2-0	ADO Den Haag (W)

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Twente (W)	5	5	0	0	22	3	15
2	Ajax (W)	5	4	0	1	9	4	12
3	VV Alkmaar (W)	5	4	0	1	9	8	12
4	PSV (W)	5	2	1	2	10	8	7
5	ADO Den Haag (W)	5	2	1	2	11	15	7
6	De Graafschap (W)	5	2	0	3	7	8	6
7	Feyenoord (W)	5	2	0	3	6	13	6
8	Heerenveen (W)	5	1	1	3	7	11	4
9	PEC Zwolle (W)	5	1	0	4	8	13	3
10	FC Utrecht (W)	5	0	1	4	4	10	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ajax (W)	ADO Den Haag (W)
VV Alkmaar (W)	5-1 W	1-2 L
Heerenveen (W)	1-3 L	2-2 D
De Graafschap (W)	1-0 W	3-2 W
PEC Zwolle (W)	1-0 W	4-2 W
PSV (W)	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ajax (W)

DDWWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	VV Alkmaar (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	3-0	5-1	8	2	W
13/09	Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	1-3	11	1	L
06/09	De Graafschap (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	1-0	6	1	W
22/08	PEC Zwolle (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
16/08	FC Utrecht (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
22/05	Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	3-1	8	1	W
08/05	VV Alkmaar (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	3-1	9	1	W
03/05	Excelsior (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	2-0	12	2	W
26/04	Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
05/04	PSV (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	1-1	0	0	D

ADO Den Haag (W)

WDWLWLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-2	2-2	6	0	D
13/09	De Graafschap (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	2-2	3-2	4	6	W
06/09	PEC Zwolle (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	2-2	4-2	3	2	W
23/08	FC Twente (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-3	1-7	4	6	L
16/08	VV Alkmaar (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	1-2	2	0	L
22/05	PEC Zwolle (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	3-0	3-0	4	2	W
08/05	PSV (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	0-2	0	6	L
03/05	NAC (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-1	4-2	9	2	W
26/04	VV Alkmaar (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
05/04	FC Twente (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	1-0	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ajax (W) vs ADO Den Haag (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ajax (W) win (81%). Probabilities: Ajax (W) 81%, draw 13%, ADO Den Haag (W) 7%.

How many goals are expected in Ajax (W) vs ADO Den Haag (W)?

The model expects 3.53 goals (Ajax (W) 2.76 · ADO Den Haag (W) 0.76), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ajax (W) vs ADO Den Haag (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.