Football · Denmark Division 2 · 23/10, 19:00

Prediction: FC Roskilde vs Fremad Amager

Team pages: FC Roskilde · Fremad Amager

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

FC Roskilde1.93

Fremad Amager1.12

1X2

55% 25% 20%

FC Roskilde Draw Fremad Amager

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Roskilde 4-6-0 (W-D-L)

DDDWDWDWWD

Fremad Amager 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDDDWDWLLW

Head-to-head

FC Roskilde 3–2–1 Fremad Amager (6 last)

Fremad Amager1-1FC Roskilde
Fremad Amager2-2FC Roskilde
FC Roskilde2-0Fremad Amager
Fremad Amager2-1FC Roskilde
Fremad Amager0-1FC Roskilde
FC Roskilde2-0Fremad Amager

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Roskilde 1584 · Fremad Amager 1515

	FC Roskilde	Draw	Fremad Amager
Our model	55%	24%	21%
Market	54%	26%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Roskilde (rating 1584 vs 1515).
H2H favours FC Roskilde: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Roskilde	Fremad Amager
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6	1.8 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.50

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.65▼	Pinn 1.67
X	3.30 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.99 ★
2	3.50 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
11:33 +34’	1.90	3.30	3.50
12:53 +13’	1.65▼	3.50▲	4.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:03 +4’	1.65	3.87	4.42
12:47 +19’	1.67▲	3.99▲	4.12▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Roskilde 3–2–1 Fremad Amager

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
21/08/26 Denmark Division 2	Fremad Amager	1-1 HT 1-0	FC Roskilde
18/07/26 Europe Friendlies	Fremad Amager	2-2 HT 0-0	FC Roskilde
17/10/25 Denmark Division 2	FC Roskilde	2-0 HT 1-0	Fremad Amager
29/08/25 Denmark Division 2	Fremad Amager	2-1 HT 0-1	FC Roskilde
25/01/25 Europe Friendlies	Fremad Amager	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Roskilde
10/11/23 Denmark Division 2	FC Roskilde	2-0 HT 0-0	Fremad Amager

Standings · Denmark Division 2

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nykobing	12	7	4	1	30	15	25
2	FC Roskilde	12	5	7	0	24	13	22
3	VSK Arhus	12	5	4	3	17	12	19
4	Naestved	12	4	7	1	17	14	19
5	Middelfart	12	4	6	2	22	16	18
6	B93 Copenhagen	12	5	3	4	20	16	18
7	Skive	12	5	2	5	15	15	17
8	Fremad Amager	12	4	5	3	16	18	17
9	Brabrand	12	3	3	6	13	19	12
10	Hellerup IK	12	3	3	6	10	19	12
11	Thisted FC	12	1	3	8	11	24	6
12	FA 2000	12	1	3	8	11	25	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Roskilde	Fremad Amager
Middelfart	3-3 D	1-1 D
Skive	3-0 W	2-0 W
Thisted FC	2-0 W	2-2 D
Hellerup IK	1-1 D	2-1 W
FA 2000	5-1 W	2-1 W
Brabrand	1-1 D	0-1 L
Nykobing	2-2 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 0 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Roskilde (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Roskilde

DDDWDWDWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Middelfart Denmark Division 2	0-0	3-3	9	2	D
10/10	Skive Denmark Division 2	1-0	3-0	1	4	W
04/10	Thisted FC Denmark Division 2	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
25/09	Hellerup IK Denmark Division 2	0-0	1-1	8	6	D
18/09	FA 2000 Denmark Division 2	2-0	5-1	5	3	W
13/09	Brabrand Denmark Division 2	1-1	1-1	2	8	D
05/09	VSK Arhus Denmark Division 2	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
28/08	Nykobing Denmark Division 2	0-1	2-2	10	6	D
21/08	Fremad Amager Denmark Division 2	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Middelfart Denmark Division 2	1-1	1-1	–	–	D

Fremad Amager

WDDDWDWLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Nykobing Denmark Division 2	0-0	3-2	6	6	W
10/10	Brabrand Denmark Division 2	0-1	0-1	10	1	L
02/10	B93 Copenhagen Denmark Division 2	0-2	0-3	2	2	L
26/09	FA 2000 Denmark Division 2	0-0	2-1	3	4	W
18/09	Naestved Denmark Division 2	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
11/09	Hellerup IK Denmark Division 2	1-1	2-1	5	1	W
05/09	Middelfart Denmark Division 2	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
28/08	Thisted FC Denmark Division 2	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
21/08	FC Roskilde Denmark Division 2	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
14/08	Skive Denmark Division 2	0-0	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Roskilde vs Fremad Amager?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Roskilde win (55%). Probabilities: FC Roskilde 55%, draw 25%, Fremad Amager 20%.

How many goals are expected in FC Roskilde vs Fremad Amager?

The model expects 3.04 goals (FC Roskilde 1.93 · Fremad Amager 1.12), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Roskilde vs Fremad Amager?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.