Football · Australia Capital Territory Premier League · 21/07, 11:30

Prediction: Canberra Juventus vs Canberra Croatia FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.73Total

Canberra Juventus1.42

Canberra Croatia FC2.31

1X2

22% 21% 57%

Canberra Juventus Draw Canberra Croatia FC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Canberra Juventus 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Canberra Croatia FC 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Canberra Juventus 1550 · Canberra Croatia FC 1563

	Canberra Juventus	Draw	Canberra Croatia FC
Our model	22%	21%	57%
Market	22%	21%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 3.73 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 14.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Canberra Juventus	Canberra Croatia FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.3	2.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	1.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 7.3	2.7 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

14.00

X4.33

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.88

2 (-1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.98

Under 3.751.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.7

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
06:05 +1’	4.00	4.33	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Australia Capital Territory Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Canberra Croatia FC	15	12	1	2	43	16	37
2	Monaro Panthers	15	12	0	3	53	22	36
3	Tigers FC	16	10	2	4	43	20	32
4	Canberra Juventus	14	10	0	4	32	21	30
5	Tuggeranong Utd	14	10	0	4	34	29	30
6	Queanbeyan City	14	8	1	5	30	21	25
7	Canberra Olympic	15	5	1	9	32	41	16
8	O'Connor Knights	15	5	0	10	15	30	15
9	Belconnen United	15	2	2	11	23	34	8
10	Brindabella Blues FC	14	2	0	12	7	44	6
11	Canberra White Eagles	15	1	1	13	11	45	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Canberra Juventus	Canberra Croatia FC
O'Connor Knights	2-0 W	5-1 W
Belconnen United	1-0 W	4-1 W
Brindabella Blues FC	2-0 W	2-0 W
Tigers FC	1-5 L	1-1 D
Canberra Olympic	3-2 W	3-0 W
Tuggeranong Utd	5-0 W	1-2 L
Queanbeyan City	1-3 L	4-2 W
Canberra White Eagles	4-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 2 L	6 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Canberra Croatia FC (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Canberra Juventus

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	O'Connor Knights Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	2-0	1	2	W
04/07	Belconnen United Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
28/06	Brindabella Blues FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	2-0	6	6	W
14/06	Tigers FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-2	1-5	5	2	L
10/06	Canberra Olympic Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-0	3-2	9	15	W
30/05	Tuggeranong Utd Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	5-0	12	3	W
23/05	Queanbeyan City Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	1-3	6	3	L
17/05	Canberra White Eagles Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-1	4-1	8	5	W
13/05	Brindabella Blues FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
07/05	Queanbeyan City Australia Cup Qualifying	0-1	0-2	11	4	L

Canberra Croatia FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	Brindabella Blues FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-0	2-0	13	7	W
05/07	Canberra Olympic Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	3-0	7	2	W
28/06	Tuggeranong Utd Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-1	1-2	13	1	L
20/06	Tigers FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
17/06	Canberra White Eagles Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	2-1	19	6	W
10/06	Queanbeyan City Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-1	4-2	4	7	W
06/06	Tigers FC Australia Cup Qualifying	1-1	1-5	3	8	L
30/05	Belconnen United Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-0	4-1	3	2	W
24/05	Monaro Panthers Australia Capital Territory Premier League	3-1	4-1	3	6	W
16/05	O'Connor Knights Australia Capital Territory Premier League	3-0	5-1	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Canberra Juventus vs Canberra Croatia FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Canberra Croatia FC win (57%). Probabilities: Canberra Juventus 22%, draw 21%, Canberra Croatia FC 57%.

How many goals are expected in Canberra Juventus vs Canberra Croatia FC?

The model expects 3.73 goals (Canberra Juventus 1.42 · Canberra Croatia FC 2.31), with a 53% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Canberra Juventus vs Canberra Croatia FC?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.