Football · Australia Capital Territory Premier League · 25/07, 08:30

Prediction: Belconnen United vs O'Connor Knights

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Belconnen United1.68

O'Connor Knights1.54

1X2

41% 24% 35%

Belconnen United Draw O'Connor Knights

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Belconnen United 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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O'Connor Knights 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Belconnen United 2–3 O'Connor Knights (5 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Belconnen United 1409 · O'Connor Knights 1447

	Belconnen United	Draw	O'Connor Knights
Our model	40%	25%	34%
Market	42%	22%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours O'Connor Knights: 3-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Belconnen United	O'Connor Knights
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.4	0.9 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.2	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 2.6	2.2 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X4.00

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
10:10	2.15	4.00	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Belconnen United 2–0–3 O'Connor Knights

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	O'Connor Knights	2-1 HT 0-0	Belconnen United
10/09/22 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	O'Connor Knights	3-1 HT 2-0	Belconnen United
23/07/22 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	O'Connor Knights	1-0 HT 0-0	Belconnen United
21/05/22 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Belconnen United	7-1 HT 3-1	O'Connor Knights
23/05/18 Australia FFA Cup	Belconnen United	8-5 HT 2-3	O'Connor Knights

Standings · Australia Capital Territory Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Canberra Croatia FC	16	13	1	2	48	18	40
2	Monaro Panthers	15	12	0	3	53	22	36
3	Tigers FC	16	10	2	4	43	20	32
4	Canberra Juventus	15	10	0	5	34	26	30
5	Tuggeranong Utd	14	10	0	4	34	29	30
6	Queanbeyan City	14	8	1	5	30	21	25
7	Canberra Olympic	15	5	1	9	32	41	16
8	O'Connor Knights	15	5	0	10	15	30	15
9	Belconnen United	15	2	2	11	23	34	8
10	Brindabella Blues FC	14	2	0	12	7	44	6
11	Canberra White Eagles	15	1	1	13	11	45	4

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Belconnen United	O'Connor Knights
Tuggeranong Utd	0-1 L	2-3 L
Canberra Juventus	0-1 L	0-2 L
Queanbeyan City	1-2 L	0-4 L
Brindabella Blues FC	4-1 W	0-1 L
Canberra White Eagles	1-2 L	2-0 W
Canberra Croatia FC	1-4 L	1-5 L
Canberra Olympic	4-4 D	1-0 W
Monaro Panthers	1-3 L	2-1 W
Tigers FC	2-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 7 L	3 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Belconnen United (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Belconnen United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	Tuggeranong Utd Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
04/07	Canberra Juventus Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	0-1	0	2	L
20/06	Queanbeyan City Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
13/06	Brindabella Blues FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	4-1	3	4	W
10/06	Canberra White Eagles Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
03/06	Tuggeranong Utd Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-2	1-3	4	0	L
30/05	Canberra Croatia FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-2	1-4	2	2	L
23/05	Canberra Olympic Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-2	4-4	3	3	D
16/05	Monaro Panthers Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	1-3	1	1	L
09/05	Tigers FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	2-3	1	7	L

O'Connor Knights

WLLWLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	Canberra Juventus Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	0-2	9	2	L
27/06	Canberra Olympic Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
20/06	Brindabella Blues FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	0-1	15	3	L
13/06	Tuggeranong Utd Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-2	2-3	5	1	L
10/06	Tigers FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
30/05	Queanbeyan City Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	0-4	3	2	L
23/05	Canberra White Eagles Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
16/05	Canberra Croatia FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-3	1-5	5	2	L
13/05	Canberra Olympic Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-2	1-3	0	4	L
09/05	Monaro Panthers Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	2-1	7	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Belconnen United vs O'Connor Knights?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Belconnen United win (41%). Probabilities: Belconnen United 41%, draw 24%, O'Connor Knights 35%.

How many goals are expected in Belconnen United vs O'Connor Knights?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Belconnen United 1.68 · O'Connor Knights 1.54), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Belconnen United vs O'Connor Knights?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.