Football · Australia Capital Territory Premier League · 25/07, 10:00

Prediction: Tigers FC vs Tuggeranong Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.14Total

Tigers FC2.49

Tuggeranong Utd1.65

1X2

56% 19% 25%

Tigers FC Draw Tuggeranong Utd

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Tigers FC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Tuggeranong Utd 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Tigers FC 2–3–1 Tuggeranong Utd (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tigers FC 1566 · Tuggeranong Utd 1534

	Tigers FC	Draw	Tuggeranong Utd
Our model	56%	20%	24%
Market	56%	19%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 4.14 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tigers FC: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tigers FC	Tuggeranong Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1	2.5 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.9 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.2	2.6 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	1.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.60

X4.75

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 4.25

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.60▲	Bet365 1.60
X	5.00 → 4.75▼	Bet365 4.75
2	4.20 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
01:05 +6’	1.48	5.00	4.20
02:12 +3’	1.60▲	4.75▼	3.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tigers FC 2–3–1 Tuggeranong Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Tuggeranong Utd	2-1 HT 1-0	Tigers FC
16/08/25 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Tigers FC	4-1 HT 2-0	Tuggeranong Utd
29/06/25 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Tuggeranong Utd	0-3 HT 0-1	Tigers FC
03/05/25 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Tigers FC	2-2 HT 0-1	Tuggeranong Utd
28/07/24 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Tuggeranong Utd	2-2 HT 2-0	Tigers FC
01/06/24 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Tigers FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Tuggeranong Utd

Standings · Australia Capital Territory Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Canberra Croatia FC	16	13	1	2	48	18	40
2	Monaro Panthers	15	12	0	3	53	22	36
3	Tuggeranong Utd	15	11	0	4	36	30	33
4	Tigers FC	16	10	2	4	43	20	32
5	Canberra Juventus	15	10	0	5	34	26	30
6	Queanbeyan City	14	8	1	5	30	21	25
7	Canberra Olympic	15	5	1	9	32	41	16
8	O'Connor Knights	15	5	0	10	15	30	15
9	Belconnen United	15	2	2	11	23	34	8
10	Brindabella Blues FC	14	2	0	12	7	44	6
11	Canberra White Eagles	16	1	1	14	12	47	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tigers FC	Tuggeranong Utd
Canberra White Eagles	2-0 W	2-1 W
Monaro Panthers	0-2 L	1-6 L
Canberra Croatia FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Canberra Juventus	5-1 W	0-5 L
O'Connor Knights	1-0 W	3-2 W
Brindabella Blues FC	7-0 W	5-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Tigers FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Tigers FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	Western Sydney Wanderers Australia Cup	0-0	0-2	1	6	L
11/07	Queanbeyan City Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	2-2	3	1	D
04/07	Canberra White Eagles Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	2-0	8	3	W
27/06	Monaro Panthers Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
20/06	Canberra Croatia FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
14/06	Canberra Juventus Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-0	5-1	3	2	W
10/06	O'Connor Knights Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
06/06	Canberra Croatia FC Australia Cup Qualifying	1-1	5-1	2	8	W
23/05	Brindabella Blues FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	3-0	7-0	5	0	W
20/05	Monaro Panthers Australia Cup Qualifying	1-1	3-1	8	3	W

Tuggeranong Utd

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	Canberra White Eagles Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
11/07	Belconnen United Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
28/06	Canberra Croatia FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-1	2-1	3	1	W
13/06	O'Connor Knights Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-0	3-2	4	1	W
10/06	Monaro Panthers Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-4	1-6	1	1	L
03/06	Belconnen United Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-1	3-1	7	0	W
30/05	Canberra Juventus Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	0-5	6	3	L
16/05	Brindabella Blues FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	5-1	2	0	W
13/05	Canberra Croatia FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	2-3	4	1	L
09/05	Canberra Olympic Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-4	6-4	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tigers FC vs Tuggeranong Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tigers FC win (56%). Probabilities: Tigers FC 56%, draw 19%, Tuggeranong Utd 25%.

How many goals are expected in Tigers FC vs Tuggeranong Utd?

The model expects 4.14 goals (Tigers FC 2.49 · Tuggeranong Utd 1.65), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tigers FC vs Tuggeranong Utd?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.