Prediction: Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro
Expected goals: 2.04 (Liverpool Montevideo 1.32 · Cerro 0.71). The model gives 51% home, 29% draw, 20% away. Under 2.25 goals (57%) and not both to score (53%). Most likely score: 1-0.
On recent form, Liverpool Montevideo is 3-3-4 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Cerro 2-2-6 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 2 wins for Liverpool Montevideo and 2 for Cerro, with 2 draws.
| Liverpool Montevideo | Draw | Cerro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 31% | 19% |
| Market | 52% | 27% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 11.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Liverpool Montevideo | Cerro | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 3.2 | 1.3 / 2.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.4 / 0.6 | 5.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Liverpool Montevideo 2–2–2 Cerro
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/26 Uruguay Apertura | Cerro | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Liverpool Montevideo |
| 24/08/25 Uruguay Clausura | Cerro | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Liverpool Montevideo |
| 25/05/25 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Liverpool Montevideo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Cerro |
| 22/02/25 Uruguay Apertura | Liverpool Montevideo | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Cerro |
| 30/11/24 Uruguay Clausura | Cerro | 1-3 HT 0-0 | Liverpool Montevideo |
| 21/07/24 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Liverpool Montevideo | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Cerro |
Standings · Uruguay Torneo Intermedio · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Central Espanol | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Racing Club de Montevideo | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Liverpool Montevideo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 6 | Boston River | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 7 | Cerro | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Liverpool Montevideo | Cerro |
|---|---|---|
| Cerro Largo | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Boston River | 1-0 W | 1-4 L |
| Penarol | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Nacional De Football | 1-3 L | 0-4 L |
| Deportivo Maldonado | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 0 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Liverpool Montevideo (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Liverpool Montevideo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/06 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 01/06 | Boston River Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 10 | W |
| 23/05 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 16/05 | Penarol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Danubio Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 20/04 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Apertura |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 14/04 | Penarol Uruguay Apertura |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 05/04 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 10 | L |
Cerro
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06 | Penarol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 30/05 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Boston River Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 11/05 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Apertura |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 26/04 | Central Espanol Uruguay Apertura |
1-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 19/04 | Torque Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 11/04 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 05/04 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Liverpool Montevideo win (51%). Probabilities: Liverpool Montevideo 51%, draw 29%, Cerro 20%.
How many goals are expected in Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro?
The model expects 2.04 goals (Liverpool Montevideo 1.32 · Cerro 0.71), with a 57% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.