Prediction: Montevideo Wanderers vs Club Atletico Progreso
Expected goals: 2.29 (Montevideo Wanderers 1.3 · Club Atletico Progreso 0.99). The model gives 43% home, 29% draw, 28% away. Under 2.25 goals (52%) and both teams to score (51%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Recent form leaves Montevideo Wanderers with 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses over 10 games; Club Atletico Progreso has piled up 2-0-8 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 2 wins for Montevideo Wanderers and 2 for Club Atletico Progreso, with 2 draws.
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Club Atletico Progreso | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 31% | 27% |
| Market | 44% | 28% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Montevideo Wanderers (rating 1492 vs 1440).
- Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Montevideo Wanderers | Club Atletico Progreso | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.3 | 0.7 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4 | 1.9 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.4 | 6.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Montevideo Wanderers 2–2–2 Club Atletico Progreso
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 Uruguay Apertura | Club Atletico Progreso | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 21/09/25 Uruguay Clausura | Club Atletico Progreso | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 27/03/25 Uruguay Apertura | Montevideo Wanderers | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Club Atletico Progreso |
| 10/11/24 Uruguay Clausura | Club Atletico Progreso | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 14/07/24 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Montevideo Wanderers | 4-2 HT 2-1 | Club Atletico Progreso |
| 04/05/24 Uruguay Apertura | Montevideo Wanderers | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Club Atletico Progreso |
Standings · Uruguay Torneo Intermedio · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Maldonado | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Nacional De Football | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Montevideo Wanderers | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Torque | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| 5 | Albion FC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 6 | Juventud De Las Piedras | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Progreso | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| 8 | Danubio | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Montevideo Wanderers | Club Atletico Progreso |
|---|---|---|
| Danubio | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Juventud De Las Piedras | 5-2 W | 0-2 L |
| Albion FC | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Penarol | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Montevideo Wanderers (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Montevideo Wanderers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06 | Danubio Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 31/05 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 5-2 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 24/05 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Albion FC Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 09/05 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 27/04 | Penarol Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 18/04 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 12/04 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 03/04 | Boston River Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 8 | L |
Club Atletico Progreso
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06 | Albion FC Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 30/05 | Danubio Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Torque Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 10 | L |
| 16/05 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | Torque Uruguay Apertura |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 28/04 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 11 | L |
| 18/04 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 12/04 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 05/04 | Penarol Uruguay Apertura |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Montevideo Wanderers vs Club Atletico Progreso?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Montevideo Wanderers win (43%). Probabilities: Montevideo Wanderers 43%, draw 29%, Club Atletico Progreso 28%.
How many goals are expected in Montevideo Wanderers vs Club Atletico Progreso?
The model expects 2.29 goals (Montevideo Wanderers 1.3 · Club Atletico Progreso 0.99), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Montevideo Wanderers vs Club Atletico Progreso?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.