Football · Denmark Division 3 · 17/10, 14:00
Prediction: Næsby vs Vanløse
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.58Total
Næsby1.32
Vanløse1.27
1X2
Næsby
Draw
Vanløse
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Næsby
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Vanløse
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Næsby
3–1–2
Vanløse
(6 last)
- Vanløse3-0Næsby
- Vanløse0-2Næsby
- Næsby1-1Vanløse
- Vanløse2-0Næsby
- Næsby1-0Vanløse
- Vanløse0-1Næsby
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Næsby 1511 · Vanløse 1556
| Næsby | Draw | Vanløse | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| Market | 38% | 26% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vanløse (rating 1511 vs 1556).
- H2H favours Næsby: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Næsby | Vanløse | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.5 | 1.4 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 1 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 6 | 1.8 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.3 | 4.8 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Næsby 3–1–2 Vanløse
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 Denmark Division 3 | Vanløse | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Næsby |
| 25/05/26 Denmark Division 3 | Vanløse | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Næsby |
| 25/04/26 Denmark Division 3 | Næsby | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Vanløse |
| 02/04/26 Denmark Division 3 | Vanløse | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Næsby |
| 23/08/25 Denmark Division 3 | Næsby | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Vanløse |
| 18/11/23 Denmark Division 3 | Vanløse | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Næsby |
Standings · Denmark Division 3
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holbæk | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 18 | 23 |
| 2 | Bronshoj BK | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 22 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | Vanløse | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Helsingor | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 20 |
| 5 | Næsby | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 17 |
| 6 | ASA Aarhus | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 16 | 16 |
| 7 | Horsholm-Usserod IK | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 21 | 15 |
| 8 | Holstebro | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 26 | 13 |
| 9 | Frem | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 19 | 12 |
| 10 | Ishoj | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 21 | 11 |
| 11 | Sundby | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 19 | 10 |
| 12 | Ringsted IF | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 5 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Næsby | Vanløse |
|---|---|---|
| Frem | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Holstebro | 4-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Ringsted IF | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| ASA Aarhus | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Horsholm-Usserod IK | 4-3 W | 1-1 D |
| Holbæk | 2-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Ishoj | 5-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Bronshoj BK | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 3 L | 3 W 4 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Næsby
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Frem Denmark Division 3 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 03/10 | Holstebro Denmark Division 3 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 26/09 | Ringsted IF Denmark Division 3 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 19/09 | FC Helsingor Denmark Division 3 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 13 | 4 | D |
| 13/09 | ASA Aarhus Denmark Division 3 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Horsholm-Usserod IK Denmark Division 3 |
2-0 | 4-3 | – | – | W |
| 29/08 | Holbæk Denmark Division 3 |
2-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 22/08 | Ishoj Denmark Division 3 |
2-0 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 15/08 | Bronshoj BK Denmark Division 3 |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 08/08 | Vanløse Denmark Division 3 |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
Vanløse
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Holbæk Denmark Division 3 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 03/10 | Sundby Denmark Division 3 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 26/09 | Bronshoj BK Denmark Division 3 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 19/09 | Horsholm-Usserod IK Denmark Division 3 |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 13/09 | Ishoj Denmark Division 3 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 05/09 | Holstebro Denmark Division 3 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 29/08 | Frem Denmark Division 3 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | Ringsted IF Denmark Division 3 |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/08 | ASA Aarhus Denmark Division 3 |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 08/08 | Næsby Denmark Division 3 |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Næsby vs Vanløse?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Næsby win (37%). Probabilities: Næsby 37%, draw 27%, Vanløse 35%.
How many goals are expected in Næsby vs Vanløse?
The model expects 2.58 goals (Næsby 1.32 · Vanløse 1.27), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Næsby vs Vanløse?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.