Football · Denmark Division 3 · 24/10, 14:30

Prediction: Holstebro vs Horsholm-Usserod IK

Team pages: Holstebro · Horsholm-Usserod IK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.95Total

Holstebro1.75

Horsholm-Usserod IK2.2

1X2

30% 22% 47%

Holstebro Draw Horsholm-Usserod IK

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Holstebro 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WWLLWLLLLL

Horsholm-Usserod IK 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDLLWDLWWD

Head-to-head

Holstebro 1–0 Horsholm-Usserod IK (1 last)

Horsholm-Usserod IK2-3Holstebro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Holstebro 1446 · Horsholm-Usserod IK 1517

	Holstebro	Draw	Horsholm-Usserod IK
Our model	30%	22%	48%
Market	30%	23%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.95 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Horsholm-Usserod IK (rating 1446 vs 1517).
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Holstebro	Horsholm-Usserod IK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.6	2.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	1.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 5.3	2 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	4.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.90

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
20:28 +12’	3.00	3.90	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Holstebro 1–0–0 Horsholm-Usserod IK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/08/26 Denmark Division 3	Horsholm-Usserod IK	2-3 HT 2-2	Holstebro

Standings · Denmark Division 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Holbæk	12	8	2	2	30	18	26
2	Bronshoj BK	12	7	4	1	26	13	25
3	Vanløse	12	5	6	1	18	11	21
4	FC Helsingor	12	6	2	4	20	16	20
5	Næsby	12	5	3	4	22	18	18
6	Horsholm-Usserod IK	12	4	4	4	25	22	16
7	ASA Aarhus	12	5	1	6	16	18	16
8	Ishoj	12	4	2	6	13	21	14
9	Frem	12	3	4	5	20	20	13
10	Sundby	12	4	1	7	18	20	13
11	Holstebro	12	4	1	7	18	30	13
12	Ringsted IF	12	1	2	9	16	35	5

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Holstebro	Horsholm-Usserod IK
Holbæk	0-4 L	3-1 W
Bronshoj BK	2-4 L	0-2 L
Næsby	0-4 L	3-4 L
Ishoj	1-3 L	2-0 W
Sundby	0-2 L	4-4 D
Frem	3-2 W	1-1 D
Vanløse	1-2 L	1-1 D
ASA Aarhus	0-4 L	1-2 L
FC Helsingor	2-1 W	3-1 W
Ringsted IF	4-0 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 7 L	4 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Horsholm-Usserod IK (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Holstebro

WWLLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Holbæk Denmark Division 3	0-1	0-4	4	2	L
10/10	Bronshoj BK Denmark Division 3	2-2	2-4	0	4	L
03/10	Næsby Denmark Division 3	0-2	0-4	7	2	L
26/09	Ishoj Denmark Division 3	0-0	1-3	5	1	L
19/09	Sundby Denmark Division 3	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
13/09	Frem Denmark Division 3	0-0	3-2	8	1	W
05/09	Vanløse Denmark Division 3	1-2	1-2	7	6	L
28/08	ASA Aarhus Denmark Division 3	0-2	0-4	5	3	L
22/08	FC Helsingor Denmark Division 3	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Ringsted IF Denmark Division 3	1-0	4-0	–	–	W

Horsholm-Usserod IK

WDLLWDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Frem Denmark Division 3	1-0	1-1	10	5	D
10/10	Ringsted IF Denmark Division 3	4-2	4-2	3	3	W
03/10	FC Helsingor Denmark Division 3	1-0	3-1	0	5	W
26/09	ASA Aarhus Denmark Division 3	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
19/09	Vanløse Denmark Division 3	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
13/09	Holbæk Denmark Division 3	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
05/09	Næsby Denmark Division 3	0-2	3-4	–	–	L
29/08	Bronshoj BK Denmark Division 3	0-0	0-2	1	5	L
22/08	Sundby Denmark Division 3	2-2	4-4	–	–	D
15/08	Ishoj Denmark Division 3	2-0	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Holstebro vs Horsholm-Usserod IK?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Horsholm-Usserod IK win (47%). Probabilities: Holstebro 30%, draw 22%, Horsholm-Usserod IK 47%.

How many goals are expected in Holstebro vs Horsholm-Usserod IK?

The model expects 3.95 goals (Holstebro 1.75 · Horsholm-Usserod IK 2.2), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Holstebro vs Horsholm-Usserod IK?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.